Is Burr in trouble heading into November?

Submitted by sydfynch on Tue, 02/02/2010 - 4:17pm

Senator Richard Burr is holding on to his dubious distinction of the cycle’s most (only?) endangered Republican Senator: A new Rasmussen poll has him under the 50% threshold against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, though he leads 47% to 37%. Against former state Senator Cal Cunningham, Burr is ahead by a larger 50% to 34%.

That said, it obviously says a lot about the shape of the cycle that the most vulnerable Republican is ahead by double-digits. Furthermore, Rasmussen has his approval rating far stronger than other pollsters: 56-32. This goes against the main finding of surveys like PPP and Civitas, which had shown that Burr was surprisingly little-known; for instance, PPP’s latest poll had Burr’s approval rating at 36/33. Don’t be surprised if the DSCC pays more attention to the state than Burr’s numbers might warrant: Democrats would be well-served to force the GOP to serve some of its resources in North Carolina, since that is money that cannot be used in states like California or Wisconsin.

For now, Democrats’ main hope is that their candidates gain notoriety in the run-up to the May primary, just as had happened to Kay Hagan in 2008. A Civitas poll released last week confirms that none are imposing figures: Marshall only gets 14%, Lewis gets 7% and Cunningham gets 4%, with 75% of respondents undecided. This means the next few months might be decisive as these Democrats will have a chance to monopolize the press coverage and the state’s airwaves without facing a barrage of GOP ads seeking to define them. (I would be surprised if the Marshall-Cunningham-Lewis showdown grows very negative, let alone as ugly as it would need to get for the nominee to emerge wounded out of the primary.)

NC: Even Rasmussen has Burr under 50% while Civitas shows open primary from: www.campaigndiaries.com

Share on Facebook

The DSCC

Submitted by Reasonably Honest on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 10:53am.

If Elaine looks to be the better candidate against Burr will the DSCC reverse course and support her.

Read the poll before you post it as fact

Submitted by Oliver Queen on Wed, 02/03/2010 - 5:05pm.

I hope this is the last time I have to say this, but the Civitas poll is worthless vis-a-vis the Democratic Primary.

When the pollster says that they're using general election voters to poll the primary, that means the poll isn't valid for the primary. Most general election voters don't vote in the primary. With the exception of last year, primary voters are much more informed (on average) than general election voters.

Marshall has a good chance in the primary is because it's primary voters voting. If it were general election voters, Cunningham's monetary advantage would prove decisive, in spite of these meaningless primary poll numbers.

I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks