Cal Cunningham and the 2010 Youth Vote

Submitted by Corndogg on Fri, 08/28/2009 - 2:49pm

Tom Jensen (esteemed pollster over at Public Policy Polling) had a quick, insightful blog post today about the youth vote in 2008 and what, if any, overlap may happen in the 2010 Senate race.

Jensen mentions potential United States Senate candidate Cal Cunningham as the one person who, theoretically, would have a major strength with turning out younger voters (he just turned 36). And, while I agree with Jensen that the youth vote may not be as high as the record level we saw under Obama, I don't think the 2004 level should be the standard either.

Obama's vast campaign left behind plenty of capable, cunning operators who, in the months since they put him in office, have grown more accustomed to North Carolina and have both deeper and broader connections all the way from Murphy to Manteo. Their passion, and that of many young, eligible voters across the state, has not waned as much as other voting blocks. These folks, with their limitless energy and powerful dedication to their convictions should be (and I think will be) nearly as fired up and organized as we saw throughout the 2008 cycle. Combine this fierce determination with better networking infrastructure throughout the state and a more informed youth block and I think that the Democrats (especially if Cal Cunningham is leading the ticket) can reach or exceed the median mark between the 2004 and 2008 percentages - which would go a long way towards producing an overall victory for the challenger.

However, I do not think that any reasonable predictions can be made at this very moment. We certainly do not know what twists and turns will develop between now and November, 2010. Yet, if my assumptions are correct and there is still a somewhat smaller, but passionate phalanx of supporters, organizers and communicators here in North Carolina that are energized from last year's triumph, it can turn young voters out in higher percentages than Richard Burr's last election. The more inconclusive, but essentially as vital argument is will this (supposedly) better (than 2004) ground game use their strengths to turn out whole factions of other voters that can support a young, vibrant and capable candidate like Cal Cunningham.

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I've seen Cal speak many times

Submitted by Frank Eaton on Fri, 08/28/2009 - 10:10pm.

And only one of those audiences was composed mainly of young people. I can't remember if I've posted this picture before, but it captures the audience interaction that stands out most in my mind:

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My gut feeling is that Mrs. Pearl Berlin (pictured) is probably closer to the median age of the electorate who will turn out to vote in next years elections than Tom Jensen is (he's in his early twenties, I've heard).

I have a feeling that if a candidate went out every day next year and pretended Pearl was the ONLY person voting, he'd do pretty well in North Carolina in 2010.

It looks like they're playing

Submitted by scharrison on Sat, 08/29/2009 - 7:58am.

rock-paper-scissors there. Be careful Cal, she knows how to read people...

I don't know Frank...

Submitted by Tom Jensen on Fri, 08/28/2009 - 10:51pm.

The median voter in an off year election is around 50, I'm 25, I'm guessing Mrs. Berlin is older than 75 :)

But that's a great picture.

Cunningham would be a terrific candidate

Submitted by Linda on Sat, 08/29/2009 - 12:39pm.

I've heard him speak, and was impressed. I think he'd be a good Senator. Additionally, while I think that young voters will continue to be a force to be reckoned with, I think it does them a disservice to imply or assume that younger voters will make their decision based on the age of the candidate. I think older voters would be more likely to use that as a measure of suitability.

Speaking as a median age voter, I'd vote for Cal. I'd also vote for someone like Elaine Marshall. As Democrats in NC, we have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to viable candidates.

So Cal's great and all, but why US Senate?

Submitted by usernamehere on Sat, 08/29/2009 - 1:48pm.

Why aren't we as Democrats trying to maximize legislative candidacies and leave the Senate seat to folks who can't lose their post (Elaine Marshall)?

Seriously, what's wrong with asking Ken Lewis and Cal Cunningham to run for state House or state Senate and finding someone to run against Burr that's in the Council of State (terms not up until 2012)?

I've got nothing against Cal or Ken or any special affinity for Elaine, but candidate recruitment for each and every office is an extremely strategic.

I want Cal, Ken and anyone else to answer why they are NOT running for state legislature. And, yes, I know Cal was a state senator before, so why not become one again? We're always begging for more progressives in the state legislature (I'm not sure I buy that Cal is one, but that's a later discussion).

 

But what is he?

Submitted by jmcharry on Sun, 08/30/2009 - 12:08pm.

I heard him speak to the New Hanover Exec, and he is a hell of a good speaker, but he wouldn't say where he stands on any of the issues, including health care. I'd like to know where he stands.

Healthcare

Submitted by James on Sun, 08/30/2009 - 1:21pm.

With a strong and clear and informed stand on health care policy he could be running against Burr already.

I want North Carolina Senators to be leaders, to actually stand for something important and pursue their agenda with passion. The Senate is sadly lacking leadership and passion these days, except from the government-haters ... who don't like spending money unless it's for war.

I Like the Way Cal is Operating

Submitted by Corndogg on Sun, 08/30/2009 - 2:24pm.

(Full Discretion: I am a Cal supporter, which, I think by now is starting to become fairly obvious).

I like what Cal is doing. Sure, if he were in the race right now, healthcare would be issue #s 1,2,3 and 4. As important as it is, that will not be the only issue that is out there come November 2010. Afghanistan, immigration, spending and the upcoming Iraq troop withdrawl are all poised to be central issues throughout this race. And, as we all know, there will be plenty of surprises between now and then.

With Cal, I appreciate him taking the time to speak with folks from every corner of the state about their current and future concerns, to hear what is important in the diners and factories and to see how the statewide dialogue is developing on healthcare and other topics. What I get from Cal is the sense that he is a man who has a very clear plan on how to address these issues and how he will conduct himself as a candidate. I suspect the military man in him has a very clear, detailed and precise plan.

Sure, he could have already appeased the restless natives (I am, in fact, one of them), but although he is aware of what the echo chambers are spinning here and in the rest of the online community, I think he believes very strongly in running a campaign that not only can win, but will win. If that takes a bit of caution and a lot of deep thought about these incredibly important matters, I can wait a little longer before he takes the plunge.

I encourage everyone here to reach out to him on Facebook, etc. and ask him questions. He's been answering them from North Carolinians for months now and I am sure he would appreciate hearing what issues we all care about most. Then, instead of asking questions in our comments, you may come away with a personal sense of what his values are and how he feels we, as a state and a nation, can solve these pressing issues.

-- A liberal originally from Yadkin County. Did I just blow your mind?

You are exactly right

Submitted by HallStyle on Sun, 08/30/2009 - 7:04pm.

2010, Health Care Reform SHOULD be in the Rear View Mirror. Hopefully. I am a Big Fan of both Cal and Ken. They both seem great. You know I don't want someone that is on the Council of State or someone that is in the State Legislature. Now if one of the Democratic Conressman wanted to run for Senate that would be a different story. To me they probably should get our support and our vote.

I think that Mcintyre pulled his name and I'm not sure if Etherigde is seriously considering the Senate. So, in my opinion unless one of the Congressman decide to run Cal and Ken should go for it. Elaine Marshall would be a great candidate but I feel she should remain as Secretary of State or Try to Take Out one of these Republican Congressman in our State. How about that Elaine Marshall for US House? I don't know what District she resides in but we need to seriously look at taking out Republican House Members. Regardless of Who runs against Burr, I think they will be able to gain support from the entire Democratic Party!

Anthony D. Hall,

Fighting for Truth, Justice, Freedom and the American Way!

Clean Energy Economy

Submitted by jimstaro on Fri, 10/23/2009 - 8:07am.

Millennials Demand Clean Energy Economy

If our leaders who are running for re-election in 2010 want to benefit from the youth vote that rocked Campaign 2008, they need to understand that creating new jobs through the development of a clean and independent energy future is a paramount issue for young people...>>>

Tell the world: My America Doesn't Torture!