Misreading the Tillis-Hagan tea leaves

John Wynne swings and misses in his prediction of a Tillis victory:

Let’s start with some facts. First of all, voters are much more concerned with national issues than state issues. While progressives hate what the legislature is doing, most of the public is ambivalent. Ill-advised though it was to say this publicly, Thom Tillis had it right when he said that most voters don’t pay attention to what the legislature is doing. It doesn’t play a role in their day to day lives.

This is the core of John's mistaken evaluation of the situation; relying on the way things have always been. That ambivalence to Raleigh's affairs has been altered, maybe permanently, by the activities of the Moral Monday movement. It took close to 1,000 people being arrested to get the public's attention, but it worked. And as far as the "Obamacare!" scare approach, guess what? It's wearing off. Big-money Conservative groups have spent millions blasting Kay Hagan since late last year, and people are getting tired of the ads. But since they don't know any other way to spend their oil-drenched money, they will keep on attacking, and Kay's numbers will keep on improving. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

Comments

Wishful thinking

Ambivalent about what's happening in Raleigh? In his dreams.

Voters are concerned about their own back yards, and increasingly understand that a dysfunctional Congress has nothing to do with their personal lives, where as the wars on women, teachers, public education and the environment strike home like lightning.

This isn't a matter of reading tea leaves, it's a matter of wishful thinking:

First of all, voters are much more concerned with national issues than state issues. While progressives hate what the legislature is doing, most of the public is ambivalent.

Whenever a person uses the word "most" without backing it with facts (survey research would be just fine), he might as well just go ahead and admit that he's full of crap.

Tillis has binders full

of bad policy decisions he can't shake off, policy decisions that have adversely affected millions of North Carolinians. And the Hagan campaign is wise to keep focusing on those things, because it highlights what kind of damage Tillis could/would try to do if voters sent him to DC.