CQ Thinks We Did Something Right in the Eighth
Submitted by Oliver Queen on Mon, 11/26/2007 - 5:43pm
Congressional Quarterly has one of its first lists of Congressional race rankings for this cycle, and Larry Kissell's race for NC-08 has a very favorable "No Clear Favorite" ranking.
NC-08 is also on CQ's "Races to Watch" list, for reasons I'm sure are self-evident to most BlueNC readers. But if you've been traveling abroad for a year and a half ...
2006: Rep. Robin Hayes (R) 50 percent, Larry Kissell (D) 50 percent
Social studies teacher Kissell came out of nowhere to get within 329 votes of victory, even though his party put little stock in his chances. A rematch looks likely in a district where the decline of industrial employment is a persistent issue.
This is a very encouraging development. Congressional incumbents have about a 98% re-election rate, which is why this race isn't "Leans Democrat." This ranking is indicative of the waning confidence in Hayes' re-election chances - and a pat on the back for thegood job we did last time. However, and pardon my paraphrasing, there are many "unknown unknowns" for any challenger in a Congressional race, and the "known unknowns" - top-of-the-ticket candidates, national mood, fundraising - are scary enough by themselves. With all of those unknowns, this could be a harder race to win in 2008 - don't forget, twice the voters of 2006 or more may come out - so there's no reason to abate Democratic momentum in this district.
As for the other House seats in North Carolina, NC-11 is "Democrat Favored" while all other seats held by incumbents are considered safe - no surprises there. But I'll wager that another one of my courage candidates - Harry Taylor - has the best chance of lifting his race out of the safe category, and I hope that the momentum for Harry remains strong.
Excellent!
This is good news for both Larry Kissell and John Autry. And bad news for Robin Hayes. How sad. :(
Good write up, Sam.
Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi
Right as I posted this
a Harry Taylor diary pops up at Kos.
1 Thessalonians 5:21: But examine everything carefully; hold fast to that which is good.
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
I never enjoyed volunteering...
as much as I did in the 8th in 2006. I just wish, so badly, the outcome was different. I think Larry is as strong as ever! What hurt the most in Charlotte were those darn Hal Jordan yard signs and a cold rain; because lets face it, those folks had nothing else to come out for.
Harry’s a personable candidate and a superstar as far as I’m concerned, but Myrick and her 15 second ads saying ‘…then America will be invincible,’ and her record of usually winning in the 70% range is a lot to overcome in the 9th district.
Lets not give up on the 5th, because Virginia Foxx does not have those old-lady dimples and naive smile republicans clamor for, and a way more shameless record. She has actually been winning by less and less each election. If you don’t know the district or the incumbent, you’ve got to wonder why.