Dispelling the "Global Cooling" myth

If you follow the arguments and tactics used by the GW denialist movement and the scientific and activist communities they oppose, the interplay begins to take on some of the attributes of a really bad chess match. Poorly thought-out gambits are attempted and soon discarded in lieu of some new Bright Idea, but very few pieces are actually captured by either side. It's very tempting to walk away in disgust at such a lackluster performance, but we can't afford to do that.

Following in the footsteps of the ClimateGate Gambit, which didn't produce the check mate they had hoped, the next New Thing appears to be Global Cooling:

As cap-and-trade advocates tie their knickers in knots over so-called “global warming,” Mother Nature refuses to cooperate. Earth’s temperatures continue a chilling trend that began eleven years ago. As global cooling accelerates, global-warmists kick, scream, and push their pet theory — just like little kids who cover their ears and stomp their feet when older children tell them not to bother waiting up for Santa Claus on Christmas Eve.

How charming. This new gambit hinges almost exclusively on the fact that 1998 yielded the highest average temperatures on record to date (2009), and anything less than that must mean we are "cooling". In reality, 1998 was an anomaly. It didn't mean (at the time) that global warming was accelerating dangerously, and it doesn't mean (now) that the globe is cooling off.

You don't have to be a statistician to understand that short-term spikes have questionable value when studying long-term trends, but that basic scientific "given" seems to have eluded the supposedly above-average thinkers over at the Puppetshow:

Ah, nothing like comedic timing from the General Assembly. This hit my email box today…

The Legislative Commission on Global Climate Change will meet Wednesday, January 13, 2010, at 10:00 a.m. in Room 544 of the Legislative Office Building .

I wonder if they will be discussing the latest round of global cooling. Somehow I doubt it.

Of course, Civitas must also pay homage to the up-and-coming, intrepid young Senator Andrew Brock, by printing a copy of his letter to the GA leadership:

Speaker Joe Hackney and President Pro Tem Marc Basnight,

Hope you are staying warm as we are experiencing one of the coldest winters on record. I will add with new discoveries that information used in Global warming studies were altered for false representation of climate data.

At this time in our state’s economy it is imperative that we be wise stewards of the Taxpayers’ money. With that being said, I call for the immediate dismissal of the Global Warming Commission. It has not produced any reports or information during its four years of existence, only costing taxpayers an exorbitant amount of money.

Thank you,

Senator Andrew C. Brock

"It's cold as hell! Global Warming is a myth!"

Idiot. Even more proof that preserving the Dem majority in the NC Senate should be at the top of our list.

So far, the propagandists at Civitas and JLF have only flirted with this gambit, because they know the basic premise behind the claim is false. But false or not, if it gains traction, they will seek to further integrate it into their dogma. Let's give them a little dose of reality to help them with that decision:

Geneva, 8 December 2009 (WMO) – The year 2009 is likely to rank in the top 10 warmest on record since the beginning of instrumental climate records in 1850, according to data sources compiled by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The global combined sea surface and land surface air temperature for 2009 (January–October) is currently estimated at 0.44°C ± 0.11°C (0.79°F ± 0.20°F) above the 1961–1990 annual average of 14.00°C/57.2°F. The current nominal ranking of 2009, which does not account for uncertainties in the annual averages, places it as the fifth-warmest year. The decade of the 2000s (2000–2009) was warmer than the decade spanning the 1990s (1990–1999), which in turn was warmer than the 1980s (1980–1989). More complete data for the remainder of the year 2009 will be analysed at the beginning of 2010 to update the current assessment.

This year above-normal temperatures were recorded in most parts of the continents. Only North America (United States and Canada) experienced conditions that were cooler than average. Given the current figures, large parts of southern Asia and central Africa are likely to have the warmest year on record.

Climate extremes, including devastating floods, severe droughts, snowstorms, heatwaves and cold waves, were recorded in many parts of the world. This year the extreme warm events were more frequent and intense in southern South America, Australia and southern Asia, in particular. La Niña conditions shifted into a warm-phase El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in June. The Arctic sea ice extent during the melt season ranked the third lowest, after the lowest and second-lowest records set in 2007 and 2008, respectively.

Just so there's no confusion about the veracity of this report or those who contributed:

This preliminary information for 2009 is based on climate data from networks of land-based weather and climate stations, ships and buoys, as well as satellites. The data are continuously collected and disseminated by the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of the 189 Members of WMO and several collaborating research institutions. The data continuously feed three main depository global climate data and analysis centres, which develop and maintain homogeneous global climate datasets based on peer-reviewed methodologies. The WMO global temperature analysis is thus based on three complementary datasets. One is the combined dataset maintained by both the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office and the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom. Another dataset is maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the United States Department of Commerce, and the third one is from the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) operated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The content of the WMO statement is verified and peer-reviewed by leading experts from other international, regional and national climate institutions and centres before its publication.

Don't take your hand off the piece yet, my dear puppets. This gambit is doomed to fail, and you can rest assured that your mistake will lose you more than just a pawn.