Do we support Kissell? Best chance of GOP Pick Up in NC (by only 1% of the vote)
Submitted by Jake Gellar-Goad on Thu, 10/21/2010 - 1:41am
His actions on HCR certainly bring up this question. But he does have some good to his name too.
Rep. Kissell voted in favor of DADT repeal, & voted for the Matthew Shepard Act. He voted against the Stupak Amendment which aimed to reduce abortion access, he voted against the Mack amendment which would have hurt workers wages on federally funded construction projects, he voted for HR 35 to strengthen executive public record release, he voted for shareholder approval on executive compensation packages, he voted for Children's Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2009, he cosponsored the Clean Water Protection Act, he voted for the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, and he voted for the Holt Amendment which helps monitor the treatment of those we interrogate.
Of all the US House districts in NC, the one with the best chance of a turn over is the 8th according to the modeling by 538.
His opponent has a 53.57% chance of winning. They project Kissell will get 48% of the vote and Johnson will get 49%. That is a such a small difference than Democratic enthusiasm and turnout can make the difference. And I have a really hard time advocating we let a pro-DADT repeal seat fall into anti-DADT repeal hands, and an even harder time letting us get any closer to a Speaker Boehner than we have to, when the race is 1% of voters apart.
But he's not an easy candidate to support. The question is do we? I don't know the answer to that. In some ways I'm relieved not to be in his district and not have to make that decision in the ballot box. What do you think?
Most recent poll
I can find on the race, from early this month, has it at a 1 point difference:
http://www.nccivitas.org/files/Congressional%20District%208%20October%20...
45% Johnson vs 46% Kissell
This certainly looks to be the closest US House race in NC whether you're looking at modeling projections or polling data.
If I were in his district, I would vote for him
But I'm not, so it doesn't matter. As to "support," I have put my money elsewhere. Larry had every chance in the world to come here and deal straight with the hundreds of people who "supported" him. He didn't.
He's a big boy. He made conscious decisions about how to manage relationships both inside and outside the district. Those decisions cost him the enthusiasm of the netroots.
All that said, this is Civitas polling, an arm of the Puppetshow, whose express purpose is to elect Republicans.
Do good. Be nice. Have fun.
Yeah, Civitas alone would be concerning
but the 538 modeling backs it up by saying its 1% apart the likely results too.
And even if 538's numbers are wrong on an absolute level, I'm betting they're is still something to it on a comparative level. In that Kissell's seat is the weakest, followed by McIntyre, and then followed by Shuler, followed by Etheridge and so on.
Given the option, I tend to trust PPP for NC races since they know the area, but PPP's most recent poll was back in June and says a 6 point lead for Kissell, but that is a while back.
Out of touch much?
From Larry's Opponent:
Fayetteville Observer - October 19, 2010
I don't know what I'd do with
myself if I were that rich. I've never been poor, but as the son of a public school teacher and a half-blinded mechanic (former military) turn janitor, with a twin brother who went to college the same time I did, I just can't imagine having that kind of income. Parent's help, student loans & grants & scholarships, and a part time job got me through undergrad, then working for 3 years at a vet clinic saving up (making less than 25 k a year) to go to grad school (& paying off 1 of my 2 student loans from undergrad first) which is where I am now (with more student loans + saved money paying for college). Being married helps a lot too with an extra income (well sort of, another set of student aid, & money from teaching classes since he's a PhD student) even if I can't count myself as married on my taxes and some insurance policies.
I can't imagine at all considering 250 k scraping by. I don't even consider 25 k a year scraping by, b/c that aint bad off compared to the jobless and homeless out there or even the minimum wagers or those working 2+ jobs. But 250 k a year is like fantasy lottery winning levels of money though. I'd have no debt if I made that salary even for 1 year.
Sorry for the long & random fantasy response to your post, I'd just astounded that someone could think $250,000 a year is "just getting by"
Kissel race tightens to .03% difference
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/north-carolina/8
Earlier it was this:
Now it is:
His opponent has a 51.8% chance of winning. They project Kissell will get 48.6% of the vote and Johnson will get 48.9%
The vote total in the last off year election (2006) was 121,523. A .03% difference is about 365 votes. Basically the same as in 2006 when Kissell lost by 329 votes and thus ran again in 2008. This time there are no Presidential coattails.
This will be one of the races to watch on election night.
Fluctuations
42.5% to 57.5% now.
538 says they base it on:
So I imagine there are many futures in which we win, but that that loses constitute a slight majority of those futures.
I doubt voter enthusiasm will be one of those variations working in his favor. I can't help but wonder how many close races across that nation turn on such small variations, and places where turned off progressive voters or as fake consultant has been discussing, turned off LGBT voters, will be a deciding factor.
I voted for him
even tho' I ranted and raged and said I wouldn't. When it came right down to it, I had to vote for him.
Lovex7
Good on ya, Love
That was the right call.
Do good. Be nice. Have fun.
I 2nd that, good call
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/house
Looking at NY Times predictions, we have some solid GOP, some solid Dem, a few lean Dem, and only one listed as a toss up, and that's Kissell's seat. Votes there may have more impact on the house than anywhere else in the state. 538 still has it leaning a little against Kissell though.
Kissell, Etheridge, McIntyre all losing according to 538
But not by a lot.
If there is anything you can do in those districts to help turnout, do it now!
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house
Damn straight we support Kissell
and Etheridge, McIntyre and Shuler as well. But after spending the last two years tearing them down many on the left have to wonder if this tepid election day support will be enough. We on the left have to find more constructive ways to express anger or we will never maintain a majority. We aren't going to elect progressives in these four districts any time soon, if ever.
This being said.....guess I shouldn't make fun of Heath Shuler for floating his name as a candidate for Speaker of the House. :)
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