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Early voting numbers

Submitted by Martha Brock on Fri, 10/26/2012 - 7:39pm

Republicans think they're winning the race

Read more here: http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/democrats_lead_early_vot...

Sounds like a lot of spin from both the red and the blue spin masters, but some interesting numbers.

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Update: Early Voting numbers and discussion

Submitted by Martha Brock on Mon, 10/29/2012 - 2:50pm.

From www.wral.com:

Forget about long lines. North Carolina election officials say they're more worried about bad weather greeting voters Monday at some early voting stations.

"The weather could chill participation," state election executive director Gary Bartlett said.

More than 1.5 million people, or nearly 23 percent of North Carolina's 6.6 million registered voters, had voted statewide as of figures posted Monday. That includes those who cast ballots at early polling station or mailed in absentee ballots. In-person early voting ends November 3.

The WRAL.com story suggests Democrats are turning out strong in early voting. Can't say I agree that is happening in Wake County, and particularly based on looking at daily early voting results by polling place. Not an expert opinion, but the campuses at Wake Tech and NCSU are not strong, but the GOP strongholds in North Raleigh and Cary are strong so far.

Martha Brock

NCSU

Submitted by Jake Gellar-Goad on Mon, 10/29/2012 - 4:27pm.

http://www.wakegov.com/elections/info/early/Documents/NCSUParking.pdf

As an alumni I'm really glad they have on campus voting, and I hope that continues in future elections, because regardless of party affiliation a lot of students have transportation issues to reach other voting sites, and the same day registration is very helpful for new voters and voters who have moved for college. And NCSU being the largest university in the state I imagine there are quite a few on campus students who need it.

I wish they had made the Coliseum Deck open to voter parking, which as far as I can tell from the PDF, it's not. Having done undergrad and more recently grad school there I fully believe it could handle the capacity. In fact I know the pay lot on the bottom level is nearly empty pretty often, so they could easily do voter parking validation like other universities do.

As best I can tell from that PDF you have to park, ride a bus, walk across campus to vote, and then repeat to get back. That seems difficult for off campus students, and entirely unreasonable for other Wake County residents who don't know their way around campus easily. Hopefully I'm just reading the parking description wrong and it's not as bad as I'm lead to believe.

I don't mean that as a complaint against NCSU or the Wake Board of Elections. I don't know how much they had to go out on a limb to make this on campus early voting happen, so the last thing I'd want to do is chastise them for it not being perfect when they could have done nothing. I really am glad there is on campus voting because it is so needed at our largest university, but I do hope for next time we can learn from this and do it even better and more accessibly.

I just feel bad if the NCSU turnout ends up looking low because off campus students and other Wake County residents couldn't get to it the site even if they tried. I've been encouraging my friends to go after 5pm on weekdays, or on weekends, because practically ever spot on campus is a free parking spot then.

Turnout in the Presidential Election

Submitted by Martha Brock on Mon, 10/29/2012 - 4:56pm.

from Pew Research:

Pew Poll: Race Evens Up, But Romney Holds Turnout Advantage

Romney also has a turnout advantage, Kohut says, with 76 percent of Republicans classified as likely to vote versus only 62 percent of Democrats. He says back in September that number was about even.

It's stats like these that make me nervous about 2012 election.

Martha Brock

UNC Daily Tar Heel endorses McCrory

Submitted by Martha Brock on Mon, 10/29/2012 - 8:13pm.

UNC-CH student paper picks McCrory

from the N&O:
"editorial writers at The Daily Tar Heel, the independent student-run newspaper at UNC-Chapel Hill, picked McCrory: 'an effective leader with a proven record in public service.'"

OMG. That just shouldn't happen. No wonder NC journalism is going to hell in a hand basket, with the Journalism School darlings running amok in Chapel Hill.

Martha Brock

Ok, real funny, hardy ha ha ... it is a joke, isn't it????

Submitted by persondem on Mon, 10/29/2012 - 10:59pm.

That was my initial thought ... we are now o-fficially in a bizarro world ... it all started in 2000 with Gore v. Bush ... I am telling you, this is not the proper timeline.

Environmental Defense Fund

http://signon.org/sign/an-end-to-gerrymandering

I wonder

Submitted by Jake Gellar-Goad on Tue, 10/30/2012 - 12:23am.

They basically explicitly say we'll over look homophobic bigotry for the sake of getting someone who will work well with a GOP state house & GOP state senate. I wonder if they'd explicitly say the same for other forms of bigotry, or if it's reserved just for LGBT discrimination?

Yesterday's PPP poll has some good numbers

Submitted by persondem on Thu, 11/01/2012 - 3:06pm.

especially for democrats, including Walter Dalton. Take a look at the crosstabs and see how well early voting has gone for dems.

According to the poll, if the votes were counted today, Dalton would be our next governor. The R's are going to really have to crank up their ground game on Nov. 6 to make up the difference.

Environmental Defense Fund

http://signon.org/sign/an-end-to-gerrymandering

2nd closest race

Submitted by Jake Gellar-Goad on Thu, 11/01/2012 - 4:41pm.

According to that PPP link:

The open race for Lieutenant Governor continues to look like it will be the state's closest
besides President this year. Republican Dan Forest has a slim lead over Democratic foe
Linda Coleman, 43/41. Every poll we've done on this race has found the candidates
within a couple points of each other.

Sam Ervin for NC Supreme Court's numbers looked good too, but there are soooo many undecideds that who knows how it goes. I think those are a few races where last minute get out the vote and poll tending support can help make a difference.

PPP's poll vs. WRAL polling results

Submitted by Martha Brock on Thu, 11/01/2012 - 5:26pm.

Have to mention the discrepancy in these two polling groups. WRAL has Goldman just two points behind Wood in the State Auditor's race. PPP has Wood up by 12 points. Bob Geary suggests WRAL poll is oversampling GOP voters. Any readers who have compared the data, please explain.

Martha Brock

I couldn't find the crosstabs to be sure but this line

Submitted by persondem on Thu, 11/01/2012 - 6:47pm.

from the article might explain it ...

... although it is consistent with a recent Rasmussen result.

Rasmussen has outdated methodology and so tilts right 3 or 4 percent (per Nate Silver). WRAL appears to be excusing their tilt by using Rasmussen for validation. Bad idea.

If anyone has a link to the details of the WRAL poll I'd be glad to check it out further.

PPP polling sample is prety close to actual voter registration percentages. If I had to choose I'd go with PPP; they have good history also.

Environmental Defense Fund

http://signon.org/sign/an-end-to-gerrymandering

WRAL poll link

Submitted by gregflynn on Fri, 11/02/2012 - 2:18pm.

WRAL poll link: Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20052