Elon Poll: 61% oppose Amendment One

The more people learn about Amendment One, the more they dislike it:

The Elon University Poll results released today show that 61% of North Carolinians say they oppose an amendment that would prevent any same sex marriages, domestic partnerships or civil unions.

But this doesn't mean all the hard work you folks have been doing is over. It just means that it's working, that people are being educated. Here's another intelligent Republican who opposes this generational mistake:

Comments

Working hard can make the difference this time

http://elonpoll.com/2012/04/02/north-carolinians-oppose-amendment-one/

It is worth noting, however, that the Elon University Poll is not a poll of North Carolina residents, not of likely voters.

Most people oppose amendment one. Most likely voters support amendment one. The strategy we are left with at this point is obvious.

Get. Out. The. Vote.

John made a typo there

It is a poll of North Carolina residents, but not limited to likely voters.

Didn't even notice the typo

I just read right over it, and got the correct meaning out of the statement, I think. =p

Know Your Audience

This is just my opinion based on what I have experienced in trying to sway people on this issue. Like most people here, I am 100% in favor of full marriage equality. Most progressive people I talk to agree as do most young people.

But when you start talking to people who trend a bit more older/conservative, I have tempered my pitch a bit. Things like "this doesn't affect your life at all, it only hurts other people." "A vote against Amendment 1 does not legalize gay marriage" (a LOT of people actually think it does). "Is this issue really worth amending the Constitution over?" And "next thing you know the government will be telling you what can go on in your bedroom too."

At this point these arguments have been working for me. Of the people who will not commit to No on 1 many have agreed to just not vote on it at all. There just doesn't seem to be much passion about it from conservatives I speak with. Either they don't understand the amendment at all or they wouldn't care at all if it wasn't on the ballot.

I guess this is my long-winded way of saying that yes, a passionate GOTV effort can win this thing. But it needs to be done the old fashioned way. Talking to and educating people face to face, and knowing your audience.

anti-bullying video

I think some legislators ought to watch this:

From Creative Loafing Charlotte

An excerpt from my column this week:

It has become clear over the past few years that public acceptance of the fact that homosexuals are, you know, actual human beings, is growing dramatically. Homophobes know that, and that's why they're in a fearful frenzy. To this progressive near-geezer, it's all too reminiscent of many white Southerners' fears when it became obvious the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was going to pass whether they liked it or not.

Like the segregationists of those days (and foes of women's suffrage before them, for that matter), proponents of Amendment One are scared and mired in the past. The whole anti-same-sex marriage crusade seems like a last-ditch effort to pile the sandbags higher against inevitable change and social progress. It's the kind of uproar that fits perfectly into this state's long history of progressive changes coming to fruition only after tooth-and-nail resistance by protectors of the status quo. Racial integration, labor rights, women's suffrage, even paving the state's roads (which some preachers denounced as "unnatural") — all those advances were resisted mightily by each era's conservatives, who eventually lost. (Yes, the state's record on labor rights still leaves a lot to be desired, but hey, at least it's not OK to kill strikers anymore.)

I'd love to end this column by declaring that the tide has apparently turned and the state's constitution will not wind up enshrining ignorance and homophobia. But I can't. Granted, it’s already a mark of progress that the amendment referendum is a real fight, and not the inescapable homophobe victory it would have been a few years ago. But at this point, no one really has any idea how the May 8 vote will turn out, and that's making both sides nervous. Surveys conducted by reliable polling companies are all over the map, with some saying the amendment's passage is near-certain and others showing that more than 50 percent of voters oppose it. Those kinds of results usually indicate that voters are more undecided than the polls reveal, and the conflicting poll numbers are putting activists from both sides on edge. As well as columnists.

Thanks for cross posting

Good stuff.

But at this point, no one really has any idea how the May 8 vote will turn out, and that's making both sides nervous.

No pun intended, but it really is all about turn out, and that's hard to predict. If Santorum is still running hot and heavy, the Christianists could come out in force. If he's sidelined, then right-wing voters will have little cause to show up. Romney is about as uninspiring as a mayonnaise sandwich.

The Democratic primary has little national consequence, so it's all about the governor's race. Not much to get excited about there either. Dalton will win easily, but unless he steps up his game, he'll have no coattails to pull through Amendment One.

Let's call all that a wash ... which brings it down to who can get their core supporters to the polls ... as it always does.

__________________________

If Amendment One does pass, it won't see the light of day. Tillis was wrong. It won't take a generation to have it overturned. It won't last a week. And for that we can thank Republican incompetence. Despite what Stam says, the failure of the actual ballot language to match the actual legislation that was passed in the General Assembly is a fatal flaw that will not withstand even a half-assed court challenge. (Follow the link and scroll down to "Ballot text".)