GOTV, Field Work, Polls, and the Election Haze: How to look at it

cross posted from kos

We need to talk about the atmosphere that is hanging around to many blogs these days. We seem to be dealing with a mixture of hope, fear, desperation and at least in some cases dread. This seems to be all swirling around at once and I know that all those emotions are YOU HAswirling around in me as well.

I don't see this as either a good thing or a bad thing, but wee need to recognize it for what it is and also that to some degree it is the result of 24 hour new cycle.

Here are the facts as I see them. It is simply a bad year to be a Republican no matter where you are. However, if you are an incumbent Republican you still have the natural advantage that comes with being the incumbent, or maybe not. The way that I see it, turn out at midterms is always dismal. Common sense tells me that people don't come out to vote for a status quo that they are less than enthusiastic about and I think that this is particularly the case this year. Large segments of the Republican base are disillusioned and unenthusiastic about the current agenda of the party that they think represents them.

So if you are a Republican strategist the question is how do you fight this? The answer is quite simple, you get on national television and lament about how many seats you are going to loose and how well the Democrats are going to be. Combine this strategy with your superior ground campaign and GOTV infrastructure, and you have the needed ingredients to beat the current situation.

This is the bad thing for the Dems. If they get to cocky and don't run a good campaign in the next 17 days, we could see everything that we have worked toward slip away. We need to get our "pundits" up on the TV saying: "this is not a sure thing. The republicans have a natural advantage right now and we have to fight like crazy to beat it." We can not let our base get complacent about the election.

Something that my coaches, youth leaders, scout masters, and parents taught me when I was a kid was that if you really want something YOU HAVE TO WORK FOR IT. The Dems are not entitled to win this campaign; we have to work for it. And on November 8 we need to talk about what grass-roots based GOTV infrastructure we need on the ground in every county in the country to make sure that we are facing this in '08.

A note of example: I went out and canvassed today with Working Families Win today, talking to voters about economic issues that are facing the county, district, state, and nation and doing voter education on these issues and the candidates stand on them. What did I see when I was out? Taylor lit everywhere, but no Shuler. Now I don't know, maybe they are going to cover the area later, but it seems to me that since we have exactly TWO more Saturdays until the election that Shuler canvassers should have been crawling all over the working class neighborhoods where I was, particularly in this district (NC-11) this cycle.

So what is the upshot of this? Get out there. Make calls, knock on doors, drop lit, talk to your neighbors and most importantly vote early so you can participate in GOTV efforts on Nov 7. You know the drill and it needs to be full bore until the election. (And before you say anything, I know that I am not perfect and that I could have done more)

But start thinking about Nov 8 as well. Start thinking about what you can do to organize your precinct, you neighborhood, your union hall, where ever, so that in '08 we can have the best damn grass-roots based GOTV effort the party has seen in years. Build social capital with people so you have credibility with the people on your street to talk to them about the election, the issues etc. Not only will it be good for us politically, but you might meet some new friends too.

Stay the course, keep the faith.

Solidarity!

CM