Hagan Quadruples Cash on Hand, Narrows Gap with Dole
Submitted by Betsy Muse on Sun, 07/13/2008 - 10:09am
Both Kay Hagan and Elizabeth Dole have released their numbers and Democratic challenger Kay Hagan is closing the fundraising gap with Elizabeth Dole. Hagan brought in $1.5 million to Dole's $1.69 million in a comparable period.
Dole has dramatically outspent Hagan gaining a few points in recent polls, but opening the door for Hagan to narrow the fundraising gap between the two. Dole spent $2.15 million in the past quarter to Hagan's $657,000.
Dole's fundraising is way down over the same period last cycle. In 2002 Dole reported raising over $2.7 million in the same reporting period. Granted, in 2002 she wasn't competing with a presidential race, but she has frequently touted her fundraising prowess. Her performance heading the NRSC tarnished her reputation in this area and her current fundraising numbers won't do anything to change that. On the other hand, she spent less this past quarter ($2.15 million) than she did same quarter in 2002 ($2.8 million). Her cash on hand is about the same as 2002 - $2.7 (2008) to $2.52 (2002).
Here's where the big difference is for Dole. In 2002 at this point she'd spent cumulatively $5.61 million. She had excellent name recognition. She was facing a male challenger who was also an excellent fundraiser, but who had much lower name recognition despite his prominence in the Clinton White House. He also had not held political office prior to running for the Senate. This cycle she's spent about $8.78 million. She's facing a female challenger who is a competitive fundraiser with modest name recognition. Kay Hagan has held public office and has an excellent reputation with her constituents. She also is NOT from Mecklenburg County.
The wild card this year - it's a presidential election year and the Democratic candidate is wildly popular among voters in North Carolina who probably weren't motivated to vote in the last presidential election. Will these voters automatically vote for Kay? Not necessarily. Hagan faces an uphill battle. She knows it and is working relentlessly to increase her name recognition. That's going to take money and Hagan has not stopped doing what it takes to raise it.
Republican Senator John Ensign who took over at the NRSC after Dole's one-year stint has ranked this race in the top ten in the Senate. Not a good sign for Liddy at all.
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If Dole keeps spending at this rate
....and she's going to have to spend since she has no ground game, Hagan will continue to narrow the fundraising and the polling gaps.
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
Spending early
This is one area where I hope the conventional wisdom (that no one's really paying attention yet) holds us.
The longer Hagan waits to be visible, though, the more aggressive her campaign will have to be. Being another nice person who cares about North Carolina and wants to be a Senator won't close the electability gap.
Doubts about Dole are essential. I recommend the campaign get even more creative in using the interTubes. And go ahead and buy doubtsaboutdole.org
: )
This is an honest question...
But is there a race that the interTubes ever helped win? I know there are ones it helped lose certainly (see George Allen, 2006 defeat). Don't get me wrong, the blogosphere and The YouTube is great, but I'm very skeptical about its ability to actually win races, rather than just serve as a organizing tool. Maybe if someone showed me a race that helped put it over the top...
I mean, honestly, how does Hagan win? TV ads. I know we don't want it to be that way, but the air war usually wins. Is it important to have a great ground game and grassroots? Yes. But, again, show me a race where the winner of the air war lost the election.
If we want to help Sen. Hagan win, it means actually stepping up GOTV and getting all of these so-called newly registered voters TO the polls. Start renting those buses for vets homes, retirement homes, universities, black churches, etc. now. Write letters to the editor and op-eds touting Sen. Hagan and improving her name recognition so her subsequent TV ads can help shape and improve her message/image. I think bad-mouthing Sen. Dole, no matter how good it feels, doesn't accomplish much. We're just repeating her name which everyone already knows. She's a known quantity. Sen. Hagan...not so much.
So I would suggest the strategy is to talk her up across the state, and make sure when the time comes to ask the poll questions:
Who do you trust more to help you on economic issues, Elizabeth Dole or Kay Hagan? The answer has to be Kay.
Who do you trust more to help end the war in Iraq and bring home the troops in a responsible manner? The answer has to be Kay.
Who do you trust more to do something about gas prices and our current energy policy? The answer has to be Kay.
Off the top of my head, Tester in MT
primary and general. I'm sure there are others, but the 'Tubes by themselves don't do it. The 'Tubes (used effectively as fund raiser and buzz creator) with 2 absolutely essential things: 1- a strong candidate and 2- a great campaign staff/operations. The 'Tubes have helped "better" Democrats win.
I also think the 'Tubes made a difference for Larry Kissell. The buzz for him began on the Internet and the critical mass was there when Kissell did the gas price promotion to launch it into the main stream media. But, then again, all that 'Tubes buzz and media exposure would have been lost if Larry weren't exactly the kind of candidate NC-08 needs and relates to.
"It is amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit." - Harry Truman
Go have a long talk...or short one with Larry Kissell
It isn't always about winning, but Larry Kissell will tell you he wouldn't have come close if it hadn't been for us and the money we raised through our efforts. It isn't always about winning, but it is about helping. We can help spread the word. We can help build excitement. We can help connect activists and volunteers to causes and campaigns. Some of the GOTV and other activities were organized through and with the help of BlueNC and our members. We helped add boots on the ground and we were responsible for a huge majority of the LTEs written on Larry Kissell's behalf.
Yes, Hagan will have to be on the teevee, but where she will win is on the ground and that's where she has Dole trumped. Dole has no ground game. Hagan, like Larry Kissell, is everywhere.
Bad-mouthing Dole, does work, though. It all depends on how it is done, of course. People won't know they can't trust Dole unless we point out why they can't trust her.
I think it's not so much "badmouthing Dole"
as truth-telling on her. :)
Pointing at Naked Emperors
Kinda sad when
truth-telling can be confused with bad-mouthing....but she did it to herself.
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
Yes, it IS kinda sad~
n/t
Targeted campaign advertising
I see how Hagan can win the much-coveted April Wine fan demographic; she just needs to adopt this as her official campaign song:
(In other news, after watching that video I'm convinced that it reveals the existence of an additional two Gibb brothers heretofore unknown to science, Chris Slade after a drum audition for ZZ Top, and the wisdom of establishing capital punishment for the offense of wearing a perm while being Clancy Brown...)
--
recently transplanted from Indianapolis, IN to Durham, NC
I wouldn't recommend drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity for everyone, but they've always worked for me. -- Hunter S. Thompson
Branden
You have too much time on your hands, I think. I have a garage that needs to be cleaned out...
Can we, instead, start talking about "for the good of North Carolina?" --Leslie H.
Pointing at Naked Emperors
"gaining a few points in recent polls..."
fact check.
CQ Politics on jluy 12:
Hagan was almost even 'til those throw the immigrants in jail ads went up--
It's a money race.
Huh?
<Tim Allen>Grrrrruuuuuh???</TimAllen>
Twenty-five percent? Twenty-five percent?!?
Is that a typical amount of Democratic crossover for a federal Senate race?
I mean, I agree that Jim Neal got a raw deal—got screwed over by Chuck Schumer is more like it— but that's not a reason to vote for Liddy Dole.
What's the motivation?
--
recently transplanted from Indianapolis, IN to Durham, NC
I wouldn't recommend drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity for everyone, but they've always worked for me. -- Hunter S. Thompson
Delightful Tim Allen Impression.
I'm not sure about those stats, although there are a bunch - a bunch of DINOs in NC. Without seeing the entire poll data, and knowing the sample, it's hard to say. I find it hard to believe. Even the most neolithic of the Dems that I know here want Dole out.
Can we, instead, start talking about "for the good of North Carolina?" --Leslie H.
Pointing at Naked Emperors