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Huh's prediction thread for the Senate primary

Submitted by Huh on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 5:31pm

I say that Lewis, Harris, Worthy and Williams can't get a combined 20%. If they can't then there is no runoff. Marshall 44%, Cunningham 38%

Anyone else care to venture a guess?

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Comments

42 - 40

Submitted by James on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 5:49pm.

I think Elaine is going to squeak by, based on my one hour at a polling place where the average age made me look like a spring chicken ... and I'm really, really, old.

squeak by

Submitted by Jerimee on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 7:29pm.

Marshall 41
Cunningham 37
Lewis 13
Williams 6
Worthy 2
Harris < 1

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can I revise this?

Submitted by Jerimee on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 8:15pm.

With 5% of the vote in Harris has 7% of the total.

How did she get into the race? Who has backed her campaign?

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/15705/23657/en/summary.html

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Where's the turnout?

Submitted by Dan Besse on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 5:51pm.

Any word on where it's especially low, vs. where it's not bad?

High Wake turnout is bad news for Cal.

Low Wake, high Triad is bad news for Elaine.

Ken's best shot is enormous turnout in Durham and Orange while everyone else forgot the election is today.

I was hearing "low, low" from Charlotte early, but don't know whether that changed in the afternoon.

In the absence of turnout data, your guess as posted is as good as mine.

Dan Besse

Early voting

Submitted by James on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 6:00pm.

WRAL in the Triangle says early voting was high in Wake, but the story overall is not very reassuring on the democracy front.

http://www.wral.com/news/local/story/7527861/

surprised to see that

Submitted by Jerimee on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 7:33pm.

yeah WRAL did act like turn-out was high in Wake... Wake poll volunteers certainly didn't feel that way, but looking at orangepolitics maybe it's a matter of degrees? seems the vote in orange was frightfully low

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In Orange we did

Submitted by Jake Gellar-Goad on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 7:44pm.

manage to close one of our traditional early vote sites which made it harder for people to early vote, and of course we had a lot of the more interesting local elections (mayoral races, councilmen & aldermen races, city school board, & the like) in 2009.

Put me down for

Submitted by Jake Gellar-Goad on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 6:22pm.

Elaine at 43%, no runoff necessary.

Speaking of whatever

Submitted by James on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 6:44pm.

I found this fabulous paragraph at the end of a Daily Kos diary.

Simply put, there is evil in this world that harbors no excuses for its actions: its name is fundamentalism. It's time for progressives to end the cycle of left-right tribalism over which fundamentalists are more dangerous or need more context. It's time to simply paint them with a single brush, and offer our alternative for a better, safer, more rational, more peaceful and more humane world.

Can there be fundamentalism without religion?

Submitted by James on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 6:45pm.

Or should the question be the other way around?

The two go hand-in-hand, but I think sorts of fundamentalism

Submitted by Stan on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 7:22pm.

exist elsewhere...or have. Absolute rulers create a cult of followers who believe the great one's words are law and not subject to interpretation...for example. Perhaps, in context, bushido could be a "fundamentalist" sect.

Stan Bozarth

Anecdotal Meck data

Submitted by Logic Connection on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 8:14pm.

Turnout looks to be pretty low today in Meck. The precinct I just left had 170 voters, less than 10%.

Looks like most of the state

Submitted by James on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 8:17pm.

Nice map here

I doubt

Submitted by Logic Connection on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 8:19pm.

we'll be seeing much green on that map tonight...

Cal's ahead in New Hanover county

Submitted by Stan on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 8:39pm.

537 votes to Marshall's 497...with about 10% reporting. My precinct has only (at this time) 47 votes tallied. I'm guessing Republican turnout was far greater than Democratic. Sheesh!

Stan Bozarth

I'm really surprised that

Submitted by Huh on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:33pm.

I'm really surprised that Lewis and the others pulled in the numbers that they did. Is this a result of the low turnout? I'm guessing that higher turnout would have resulted in lower percentages for them. Hopefully when the runoff is over the party can smoothly come together in support of the winner and the DSCC will help Elaine just as enthusiastically as they will CC should she come out on top once again. Elaine can beat Burr if she gets the financial support it will take.

I'm a moderate Democrat.