If I were Jerry Meek...

Looking ahead to 2008, several things are clear. First, we can see that Liddy Dole is more vulnerable than we would have expected a year or two ago. Second, we see that there is still a bit of apprehension about the race, and it's not considered to be a top-tier target for the Democrats. National Democrats think North Carolina is just too red, and their concerned that the Presidential race at the top of the ticket will drag down any Democratic candidate against DOle.

I happen to think that we can take Dole down - the latest poll data all seems to indicate that Dole is not popular, and the North Carolinians are open to the idea of a new Senator. I also happen to think that, if we're going to beat Dole, we need to start now. This is my strategy for beating Dole in 2008. Jerry Meek, take notes.

First, we need to start with some assumptions. These are the premises upon which I'm basing this strategy. For the most part, they're unprovable, but I think they're reasonable operational premises:
1. The 2008 elections will hinge on Iraq. The Presidential race will only focus attention on Iraq, and it's undeniable that it will probably be at the forefront of voters' minds.
2. The DSCC will not be looking to put a lot of money into NC. They have their top targets pretty well figured out by now, and they're going to stick to those races. Challengers in CO, NH, OR, ME, MN, NM and maybe VA will get the focus of the funds from the national level. Of course, this strategy can always change, which brings us to assumption 3.
3. National funding and strong challengers are attracted to endangered incumbents. That is, an incumbent's poll numbers are inversely proportional to the strength of the challenger they face and the amount of funds that challenger has.

Okay, so if we accept these three premises, then it's pretty clear what has to happen. We need to bring down Dole's poll numbers, in order to attract the attention of the DSCC and pull in a strong challenger with a good chance of winning. The way to do this is through the Iraq issue - it's simply inescapable.

So, how do we do this? I think the job falls to the state party. If I'm Jerry Meek, this is what I do:
1. Enlist Democrats from across the state who have served or are serving in the armed forces. Ask them to organize a 527, call it "Soldiers for North Carolina" or something.
2. The 527 begins going after Dole on Iraq by the end of the spring. The line of attack is simple: Dole thinks the war is going well. She voted against funding and training our troops. She voted against a responsible end to the war. She has voted, time and time again, to put our troops in danger. She is clinging to the failed Rumsfeld Iraq strategy. You get the idea.
3. The attack targets independents across the state and Republicans in swing counties, using direct mail and ads on radio and TV. How do we pay for it? Ask Bowles donors to pony up. Ask your big money folks. Tell them that it's time to put up or shut up - we can beat Dole, but we've got to start now.
4. By Thanksgiving, take a look at Dole's numbers. If you've executed the strategy well and stuck to your line of attack, she should have come down in the polls. Then you can start officially going after her as a Party - echoing the 527 attacks.

To my mind, this is pretty straightforward stuff. We need to soften ol' Liddy up, otherwise we'll never get the cash we'll need to take her down. The line of attack has to be Iraq, because that's going to be the issue. We also just happen to have the good fortune of being on the popular side of this particular issue. Thus, there's no excuse - we need to start the attack now.