In praise of pessimism
Submitted by James on Sun, 09/17/2006 - 9:48pm
I remember the November, 2004, like a deep, dull toothache. After months of hard work and more fundraising events than I ever thought possible, I made the mistake of getting my hopes up. I couldn't believe the American people could be so stupid as to fall for George Bullsh*t's lies again - and I actually had optimism about our collective future. That's a mistake I'm never going to make again.
Which is why I'm getting nervous with so many prognosticators writing about how vulnerable the Goopers are. Even when their logic is impeccable and completely well-reasoned, I'm not buying it. No matter who's painting the rosy picture.
One of the most upbeat scenarios I've read lately was in Atlantic Monthly. There Jack Beatty lays out a convincing case the macroeconomic variables - stagflation in particular - will spell doom for the Republican party in 2004.
In short, either falling real incomes or rising unemployment strongly predicts defeat for the incumbent—that is, the president’s party in off-year elections. If the experts quoted in the Times are right, real personal incomes, which have fallen since 2001, will fall this year—that’s what inflation means. If, to moderate inflation, the Fed raises interest rates to slow the economy, then unemployment will rise. Both are likely to rise together, if Gordon is right, between now and 2008. Thus, if history is any guide, economic retrospective voting should cost the Republicans the House this year and the presidency in 2008.
That rationale for a Democratic takeover seems as good as any and better than most, but I'm still not buying it. Because the truth is, no rationale can factor in the despicable acts of sabotage, fraud, obstructionism, lying, stealing and flat-out cheating that the Party of Torture is fully capable of carrying out. Nor does any rationale take into consideration the catastrophically low turn-out rates we've seen lately. The neocons have decimated the effectiveness of government to the point that many people just assume things will get worst and don't even bother to vote.
Even worse, rosy predictions don't take in to account the so-called "education" efforts of "multi-million-dollar opinion-manufacturing" organizations like Republicans Legislative Majority and the John Locke Foundation. The Puppetmaster will be pouring his corporate money into targeted North Carolina districts to spread the word that greed is good and government is bad, hoping to place people like Tree Suit Willie and Hair Guy Joe into the legislature to do his extremist bidding.
My pessimism aside, it's possible to learn a few things from optimists. For example, the end of the Atlantic article had this good call to action.
If this excursion into political science has any relevance for Democratic electioneering, it may be this: downplay "position-issues"; they leave you open to attack. Instead link the Republicans to "conditions negatively valued by the electorate" — incompetent management of the government and falling real incomes or rising unemployment or both. Make the 2006 and 2008 elections referenda on a record of miserable failure.
That's pretty much what I say to anyone I talk to about why we need to get rid of Republicans. Bumbling old fools like Hayes, Taylor, Foxx and Jones have rubber-stamped the disastrous policies of the Bush administration and driven this country off a friggin' cliff. They are every bit as much to blame as AWOL George, and maybe even moreso. They have to be at least a teensy bit smarter than the idiot in the White House, don't they?
So for better or for worse, I'm planning on being one hard-edged pessimist between now and November 7. When people ask how I think things are going, I say, "I don't know and I don't have time to worry about it. There's too much to do right now."
Some people get stopped by pessimism
but not me. It's the best way I know to keep in touch with what's at stake. It's gets me up and going every day. When I think about the real risk of two more years of King George without a Democratic majority in one house of Congress, I am what you might call 'highly motivated.'
Do good. Be nice. Have fun.
After the 2004 elections, it took me a whole week
fight my way out of a deep depression. I went thru the different stages you go thru when you lose someone.
That's why I need people like you guys so much, you bring so much to the table, you work so hard for a Democratic win, that it encourages me to continue fighting and working to that end too.
I'm glad you aren't the optimistic type A, you bring it here from a much different perspective. You contiually make me say, "I didn't think about it like that...".
Too much optimism, imho, is a sign of laziness and lack of understanding.
No matter that patriotism is too often the refuge of scoundrels. Dissent, rebellion, and all-around hell-raising remain the true duty of patriots.
In some parts of my life
I'm carefully optimistic. But I don't interpret that as being hopeful. Hope is too much like faith - both require leaps of something I'm just not able to make.
That doesn't stop me from go-go-going to get stuff done though.
BTW, I'm really glad you're here, Momo. Your perspective is inspiring and I'm always pumped up by your enthusiasm. Being a pessimist, I can definitely use a little pumping up!
:)
Nite all.
Do good. Be nice. Have fun.
04 depressed me, as never before too
I was reluctant to see an inconvenient truth, because of "What could have been" if Gore hadn't had the election stolen. There were times that the loss, to the world, of not having Gore as president overwhelmed me, but there were times that the movie made me laugh.
Stubborness has long been a quality of mine, and that motivates me to stay involved in politics. This year, I am taking it very local by supporting and working for 2 county commissioners and Bill Glass, to replace Myrick.
Our city, county, state, country and world are ALL too important to give up!!
Keep on spreadin' the truth, y'all!
Optimistic pessimist
I'm an optimistic pessimist. I expect the best and plan for the worst.
My husband and I spent last night talking about this very thing.
We see the same faces doing the same things, in the same ways. It's the definition of insanity - doing the same things and expecting different results. I'm 46, and I'm second youngest person who regularly attends party meetings. My husband is the youngest - he's 42. This week, especially, has felt like a spinning of wheels and running in sand. But we registered a 32 year old woman who had never voted before (yay!) and made connections with friends who will help our county party get a GLBT caucus started over the next year or so. (double yay!) I have to celebrate the small stuff, and maybe enough small stuff will help us win some of the big stuff.
We are still going to elect the first Democrat in 15 years as county commissioner. We hope to help Rory Blake unseat Howard Coble and Dr. Abraham Oudeh, the former mayor of Dunn, unseat Harris Blake. Will we do it? Remains to be seen. But I am committed more than ever to the ideals of Democratic Party because - how can I not be? Look at what the alternatives are!
I'm so glad that Momo told me about this site. I don't post often, but I read everyday and am so inspired to find that I'm not alone in the state, in the world. Since I'm originally from NJ, I have to say it this way. You guys are da best!
"Be the change you wish to see in the world." - Ghandi
Gloriously optimistic
but I live in the real world. I'm one of those cheerleader types who really piss people off b/c I always, ALWAYS find the bright side. I see every silver lining in every storm cloud on the horizon. The older I get, the harder it can be to find the bright side, but I know it's there and I seek it out.
Am I angry about what the Republicans have done to our country and the methods they employ to maintain control? You bet I am. But I'm not bitter. And, I'm not pessimistic.
I do have hope for our future. My hope doesn't come from the pundits' predictions of the voter wave that will give Democrats their win in November. My hope comes from knowing that we have people committed to our country for all the right reasons. Many of them are right here at BlueNC. Every time someone adds themselves to Robert's BlueNC Frappr map I feel that much more hope.
I also have faith and my faith is not misplaced. I know that for a fact. I've placed my faith in each of you and your commitment to doing what it takes to get our country back. If all of you don't give a person a reason to feel hope, then I don't know what will.
I can understand where Anglico is coming from though. It is that momentary burst of anger that usually sparks my writing. Anger can provide a great deal of motivation but it can be dangerous if you don't find an outlet for it. So, as part of your therapy here is an activity for you that will help ease the anger.
Put up campaign yard signs. Every time you hit the wooden stake, pretend Dubya's face is on the end of it. Or, you can pretend you're driving that wooden stake through the heart of the Republican party. Either way.....you'll feel better. (Not quite as effective with those signs with the little metal frames...sorry.)
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Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.
I knew I could count on you
to fill that glass halfway!
Thanks SD. I love everything you said and will head out this week to hammer yard signs. Good suggestion.
Do good. Be nice. Have fun.
Half full
and sometimes completely full of %&*$, but know where you are coming from. My depression after 2004 lasted about 3 months. I didn't get back into the swing of things until last fall, so the hopelessness lasted almost a year. I swore I'd never let the bastards get me down like that again. And I won't! I will be the first to admit that the silver lining was doing a damn good job of hiding after the 2004 elections.
Click on the hat to see all Citizen Journalist files
***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.