Kissell watch
Submitted by James on Tue, 01/12/2010 - 11:47am
Assuming he gets past a primary, Larry Kissell (NC-8) looks to be in a strong position against Republican challengers. The commies at Public Policy Polling have the latest.
Back in the Republican primary for governor, Bob Orr used to jokingly ask me to attack him so he could build up his conservative street cred. I guess the same applies to Kissell, where criticism from the left has strengthened his position with district conservatives and independents. Good thing he doesn't need our money or support any more.
Will tighten up.
I predict a tight race depending on who the Republicans field and how the economy does. D'Annunzio is already running TV ads. The Republican base is going to be very fired up and unless the Senate race lights a fire, the District 8 Dems are not going to be.
Kissell is vulnerable
NC-8 goes between republican and democratic sometimes (ala Robin Hayes). Depending on the "mood" of the country and in particular our state when the election happens, Kissell could possibly be vulnerable. In my opinion, he needs to be the ultimate candidate on the democratic side regardless of the many faults he has and has had in the past as most elequently (and accurately, I might add) presented by our friends right here on BlueNC. I see the national GOP using most of their considerable financial and strategic armament to unseat democratic U.S. Senators so Kissell might very well be able to match campaign funds and outsider-advisors that his opponent will put up against him.
But, let us be very honest here. If unemployment numbers in November are as high or nearly as high as they are now, and if the economy is still seen as being extremely sluggish and uncertain, democrats are going to take a beating. I do not like saying that, but sometimes it is better to be truthful about situations rather than denying them. Hopefully Obama and company can turn around our unemployment numbers and get our economy cooking again. At the very least, both of those very important issues need to be seen as "greatly improving".
If not, Kissell is not just vulnerable, he is toast.
Really, you think that people will put their faith in Repugs
fixing the job situation? I believe that the voting public is more intelligent than that!
I would not like to think so, momo
Oh yes, I would like to think that the "voting public", as you put it, would be smart enough to know that we saw what the republicans did to us with regard to jobs in the Bush years, of course. But, many times people that do vote make their check mark, pull their lever and/or fill in their blank on a ballot to vote AGAINST candidates/parties rather than truly voting FOR candidates/parties. No, you and I probably do not do that, but just SO many do.
A HUGE amount of people vote on emotion rather than logic, regretfully.
They sure will
Considering that here in Stanly County, no Democrat in 2008 got better than 29% of the vote, I feel safe to say that people here have full faith in the Republicans to fix the job situation. To sum up the feeling of the average Stanly County voter, Government bad, free market good, and tax cuts fixes all problems.
Voter intensity
The PPP poll reflects the basic Democratic orientation of the 8th District, the lack of familiarity with any of the Republican alternatives, and the fact that Kissell does not appear to be strongly identified with particular unpopular initiatives such as the health care bill. Note that while the 8th District is mostly Democratic, it's not an urban liberal district, and progressive activists' criticisms of Kissell don't appear to reflect directly on his support level.
In an off-year election, however, it's less about who gets the swing voters than it is about who turns out to vote at all. In an environment in which the swing voters are disgusted with both sides, and overall turnout likely depressed as a result, intensity among the respective base voters becomes especially critical.
If those circumstances prevail in November, Kissell could still end up in trouble--assuming the GOPs nominate and fund a reasonably credible candidate. That's another big "if", of course.
Dan Besse
"If"
Hopefully that "if" will not be someone credible. Like a good friend of mine always says: "If your aunt had balls, she'd be your uncle". :) Hopefully Kissell will not have to run against someone that ends up being an uncle, if you get my drift.
Riding the coat tails.
Another big "if" is going to be the Senate race. If that generates a lot of enthusiasm in the Democratic base, Kissell may be able to ride the coat tails of the Democratic turn-out for that race.