Momentum
Submitted by KenLewis2010 on Sun, 01/31/2010 - 11:49am
Hello everyone,
I hope you are not too snowed in this weekend! I just wanted to share an email that my wife, Holly, sent out on Friday regarding Kevin Foy endorsing my campaign for Senate ... and some other news.
Best,
Ken
_____________________________
For many, two key political events of last week were disheartening - the loss of the Massachusetts Senate seat and the appalling Supreme Court decision increasing big money's influence in politics. For some, these events even signaled a time to retreat from the movement of change.
The supporters of our campaign couldn't feel more differently. These decisions strengthen our resolve and inspire us to work even harder for the people of North Carolina. As my husband Ken has been saying since we began this effort, "Now is no time to retreat. Now is the time to put a stake in the ground for progress."
A growing chorus of our state's leaders who are dedicated to working on behalf of change and progress, are standing up with us - putting their stakes in the ground. The latest to do so is former Chapel Hill Mayor Kevin Foy.
Citing Ken's unique experience in both business and community development, Foy said:
"It's especially significant that in Ken Lewis we have a leader who is committed to jobs and economic development and also to a progressive vision for North Carolina's future. Ken represents genuine new leadership - not just a young version of the old North Carolina."
While endorsements like Kevin Foy's are important, the most critical support our campaign needs is from you. We need you to stand with us as we work to make a difference for North Carolina and all the hard-working families who live here. We need you to drive your stake in the ground next to ours and countless other North Carolinians who refuse to back away from the brighter future we all deserve.
We can, and we will, win. Coming on the heels of Kevin Foy's endorsement we saw another great sign of momentum in our poll numbers. The Civitas Institute released a poll regarding the Democratic Primary for the United States Senate. It showed that today Elaine Marshall's lead has gone from 35 points to 7 and it shows that Ken is in a solid second place. That poll also showed Ken winning among those most likely to vote in the primary.
My husband will be the next Senator from North Carolina with your support. The news this week shows that we are the campaign that is surging. I can't thank you enough for your support to date. I would like to ask you to please help us grow our list of supporters and share this message with five or more of your friends. Sign up to volunteer and to make whatever financial contribution you can make. If ever there was a time to band together and push forward, it is now.
Thank you for all you do,
Holly Ewell Lewis
Nice work
Having a wonderful partner who's willing to put herself out there on behalf of a candidate is a true blessing.
Do good. Be nice. Have fun.
About that Civitas poll ...
It wasn't a poll of likely Democratic primary voters. It was a poll of general election voters.
To quote Civitas' release:
"survey is of likely General Election voters and may not be fully indicative of that voter participating in a Democratic primary."
Ergo, the poll is meaningless.
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
Take a look.
Juggling poll numbers is often fun. When evaluating the significance of a poll's results, though, always check first who was polled, the total sample size, the confidence interval and margin of error, and the size of the subsample from which a particular result in drawn.
In this case, the Civitas poll was of 600 "likely voters", with a margin of error of +/-4% for any result drawn from the full sample size. Subsample results come with a larger margin of error. The subsample for questions related to the Democratic primary in this poll was 390 (the number of Democrats and independents among those surveyed).
The specific results of that 390 person subsample were:
Marshall 14%
Lewis 7%
Cunningham 4%
Not sure 75%
I recall having fun blogging about similar numbers during my bid for lieutenant governor in 2008. After the February PPP tracking poll, I was able to note that among the Democratic field I was in "a close second place" and "just one percentage point out of first place". As I recall, that month's poll showed Smathers 10%, Besse 9%, Dalton 8%, Dellinger 6%, and the balance undecided. Kind of reminds me of the current example under discussion.
Candidates take their good news where they can find it.
Here's the link to the Civitas poll numbers in this case: http://www.nccivitas.org/files/Dem%20Senate%20Primary%20Jan%202010%20PR%...
Dan Besse
Except
I hate to beat a dead horse, but when PPP says they're polling likely voters for a primary, they poll likely primary voters. Civitas clearly doesn't care.
Now, at this stage two years ago nobody knew what the extent of the Democratic turnout would be in the primary, and Dalton/Hamp hadn't thrown a lot of money at the race. Obviously, there's lots of money to be spent.
However, I haven't seen anything that objectively refutes the idea that Elaine has a 15-30 point lead in the primary. That lead will tighten or evaporate due to campaign spending, but if the vote were this Tuesday Elaine would be the favorite by far.
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks