NC-Sen: "Bank Run" Burr Still Unable to Crack Low-40's vs. Democrats

{Originally posted at my blog Senate Guru.}

Public Policy Polling lays it out:

Vulnerable freshman Republican backbencher Richard "Bank Run" Burr's approve-disapprove in the poll is found to be a weak 38-32, identical numbers to last month's findings. As for "Bank Run" Burr's match-ups against Democrats, for the purpose of comparison, PPP reminds us:

It's always worth a reminder that Elizabeth Dole led Kay Hagan 43-27 the first time we tested that match up.

Liddy Dole led now-Senator Kay Hagan 43-27 to start, before going on to lose to Hagan by a whopping nine points on Election Day. The lowest-polling Democrat against Burr in this poll clocks in at exactly 43-27, with every other Democrat in the race or considering a bid polling better. Bad sign for "Bank Run" Burr.

PPP breaks down the big picture:

The key take away from those numbers probably isn't the variation in where the Democrats poll, which is largely a function of name recognition at this point, but in the lack of variability in Burr's number. He's at 41-43% against all comers, similar to how he was at 43% against four potential opponents we tested him against last month.

That speaks to the fact that it really might not matter who the Democratic candidate ends up being. With Burr's numbers where they are, if the political climate moves back in a Democratic direction any candidate who can raise some money, has something to say and can avoid making a fool of themselves is probably going to beat him. But if things stay the way they are today, or move in a more Republican direction, none of them are going to beat him.

If Democrats pass meaningful health care reform this year and the unemployment rate begins to move downward by Springtime, buoying Democratic numbers across the board, it'll be "Bye bye, Bank Run!" If the economy continues to lag and Democrats can't get key legislation passed, Burr can squeak by. Sounds right to me.

As for who Democrats will get behind in the primary, I'd offer that someone who can mobilize the grassroots to turn out in a mid-term and who can run a disciplined campaign is as important, if not more important, as someone who can raise the biggest bankroll given the flow of national dollars that will come into North Carolina (remember how much in terms of resources that the DSCC poured into the Dole-Hagan race last year?). The Democratic field is still forming, but numbers like these should give Democrats optimism against "Bank Run" Burr.