NC Senate predictions
Submitted by droat on Mon, 06/21/2010 - 1:00pm
Marshall: 136,052
Cunningham: 104,981
Many are predicting a much lower turnout based on most runoff turnouts. The Cunningham campaign has publicly estimated the turnout near 200K. The Asheville Citizen - Times has suggested 75K. But they aren't comparing apples to apples. They are looking at recent runoff elections that involved downticket races such as the State Education Superintendent.
When the runoff is for a Senate race at the top of the ticket(no presidential primary) the turnout is much closer to the turnout of the primary.
The top-vote-getter in a Senate primary usually retains 90%+ of the primary vote. The runner-up is the wild card. In these runoffs, the runner up may get less than 50% of their original vote or more than 150%.
425,343 voted in the NC Dem 2010 primary. 154,605 voted for Marshall. 115,851 voted for Cunningham. NC is still very much in recession, so fundraising is tight. So I think that Marshall will fare a little worse than 90% retention. I think that Cunningham will get just over 100K votes because that's what they think they need to win.
Crossposted at Kos
Thanks
Interesting discussion over there ... thanks for the cross-post.
I'm often intrigued by Kos diaries about North Carolina and the interest of the national community in what's happening here. Sometimes it's insightful discussion, sometimes it's bat shit crazy. Your diary was a good one.
Do good. Be nice. Have fun.
I put up my thoughts on Kos too
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/6/22/878288/-Todays-Election-in-North...
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
The senate race is the only
The senate race is the only one on the ballot for 90 of the 100 counties. I doubt there will be 200k votes. The old faithful will be the only one's that make it to the polls and Elaine knows most of the old faithful by their first name. Elaine will win this thing easily.
I'm a moderate Democrat.
My thoughts exactly
I'm guessing <150K votes, but then again, I'm an optimist.
:)
Do good. Be nice. Have fun.
At the end of the day,
At the end of the day, electability isn't a good argument. People want to vote for the person who will be the best representative. Elaine 55K, Cal 40K, and this rapacious folly of a runoff will be over.
As for turnout, if you extrapolate the runoff turnout from the percentage that voted early in the May 2 Primary, you come up with ~85,000 as the turnout. But I feel comfortable tacking on an extra 10K since it wasn't as publicized this time around ...
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
My turnout number was way
My turnout number was way off, but percentage (58/42) was about right.
Also, Elaine won my precinct 119 to 41, or 74 to 26 percent ... much better than 119/93 (48%/37%) out of 250 on May 2. I live in an educated, affluent precinct, and I wonder what kept 52 Cal voters home.
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
Turnout numbers from the 2nd Dem primary in 2008
2008 numbers for comparison
Registered Voters: 4,108,644
Ballots Cast: 75,069
Voter Turnout: 1.83 %
The statewide race was for the Dem nomination for Labor Commissioner.
Mary Fant Donnan 43,404
John C Brooks 20,506
There were some local runoffs too.
first
Two of my facebook friends report each being the first voter to vote in their respective precincts.
My predict: turnout will be 100k & Elaine will get over 56% of the vote.
- - - - -
http://twitter.com/Jerimee
Ummm...
Cal 50%
Elaine 50%
2nd Runoff YAY! / Boggle tournament to decide the victor.
PS Electability is the most important argument if you can back it up, Cal can back that one up.
Either way I'm all in.
Serious Prediction: Elaine 48% Cal 52% < 120,000
Elaine takes it in stride.
Marshall: 109,000
Cunningham: 74,000
Drew Reisinger
Campaign Manager
Patsy Keever for NC House 115
PatsyKeever.com
Less than 100,000 total
Cal = 49,000
Elaine = 47,000
What? I like Cal. And it's not like there's any money riding on this...okay, just to be on the safe side: it won't cost me anything if I'm wrong, right? Other than a smidgen of respect from one of my three fans, that is. Not that...I don't value that respect...*sigh*
Go Cal! I may or may not lose something if you don't win.
I did my duty
I cast my vote for Marshall earlier today. Keeping my fingers crossed, hoping for a Marshall kind of night.
As of 8:21 PM, Marshall ahead....
Elaine Marshall (DEM) 61.54% 45,432
Cal Cunningham (DEM) 38.46% 28,398
Total 73,830
Stan Bozarth
Marshall wins
Just called for Marshall