Stop Worrying... Obama Will Win

This week I've heard nothing but worries from Barack Obama supporters.

I'm here to tell you to quit worrying... we're going to win.

If you're like my Uncle Gordon, you're thinking that I've been brainwashed by the insider wining and dining of the Convention. Not so. Hear me out, and think about what you'll need to do if you want to win rather than worry.

Forget About Palin, Pundits, and Polls
Everyone I talk too is upset by Sarah Palin, some pundit that they've been reading or watching, or the latest polls. You've got to forget about all of those things.

Yes, like the rest of you I'm fascinated by pictures of Palin with guns, Facebook pages about her kids' binge drinking parties, and lots of late night humor. But, we can't let all of the air get sucked up by our own fascination with a woman who compares herself to a dog.

As George Lakoff has written,the Palin nomination changes the game. In part this is because our fascination with her takes our attention away from the real issues of the campaign. But more importantly, the fact that Democrats are so upset about Palin's stance on "issues" shows that we still haven't learned how to win elections. In this decade Republicans have won on images and metaphor, and Democrats have lost on issues. Part of the Obama campaign's brilliance has been the way it has bridged the two. With the nomination of Palin, the McCain campaign has done the same thing. We need to hit back not with Palin attacks or issue arguments, but with simple metaphorical messages: The McCain/Bush brand of radical conservatism is un-American and harmful to our people. Obama is right when he calls on the deeper strength of America as a country based on people working together for a better future. (If you want to expand this argument, just read the Lakoff article - he says it way better than I can.)

Political junkies need pundits and polls like a heroin-addict needs a fix. But this week's news seems to have everyone coming down hard after a big high. Junkies, you're going to have to give up your vice. Your drug of choice (HuffPo? NYT? MSNBC?) really isn't doing a damn thing to win the election for Barack Obama. The pundits are mostly spinning junk to fill up time. The pollsters aren't even sure they're polling the people who are going to vote. 90% of what you're doing with all of this dope is reinforcing what you believe. The other 10% is driving you crazy. I know you're not going to go cold turkey, but please stop distracting yourself from the work that's at hand.

So, if you're not going to talk about Palin or hash over the most recent poll, what are you going to do? GET TO WORK!

What Really Matters: Television and Turnout
Barack Obama is going to win this election because of two things: Television and Turnout.

Now for the most part, you and I can't do a damn thing about Obama's presence on television. We can't craft strategy, we can't coach him for the debates, and we can't control what the media reports. The only think we can do is give money. And believe me the campaign needs all the money it can get to put ads on the tube.

What we need to do is get people out to vote. Turnout has been the cornerstone of the Obama campaign from the jump. So many of us are inspired by the campaign in part because we see how many other people it has inspired to get out and vote. The core brilliance of the campaign is its field organizing, which I particularly admire for its roots in the community organizing work that Obama and I have both done. The simple math is that in key states, Obama will have to increase turnout from 5-15%. In North Carolina, we'll have to be on the high end. Today, our Orange County voter registration coordinator (the amazing Diane Robertson), told me that we've registered 5000 new voters since the primary... in a county that was already supposed to be 105% registered. We can and will bring out millions of new voters across the country, but it takes work.

There's still plenty of time to register voters. And after that, there's even more work to do in order to make sure people vote. You're telling me you want to win, right? Here's what you can do:
-Volunteer for the Campaign for Change. Register voters and canvass.
-Make a list of everyone you want to make sure votes. Contact them four times between now and election day. Four contacts = one vote. You can do it.
-Encourage people to vote early. Not sure how that works in your state? Check it out here. You can also use this site to help people register and find their polling place.
-Don't wait until election day to start working on this. But do plan to work on election day. Contact the campaign or your local Democratic party. Plan to spend all day canvassing door-to-door or working public places to make sure people vote.

Bridging Racial and Generational Divides
Now, here's why I'm so confident we'll win on November 4.

The most common fears about this election that I've heard are that people won't vote for Barack Obama because he's not white and he's not experienced.

Let there be no doubt that this election is a national referendum on racism. I don't believe that electing Barack Obama will make a substantive difference in race relations, nor do I believe that most McCain voters will pull that lever because of Obama's race or McCain's. But the historic presidential candidacy has cast our nation into a dialogue about race that is more productive and more ugly than anything we've seen in forty years. Great change requires great discomfort. Deal with it. Literally. Cast yourself into that discomfort and deal with it. Take every chance you can between now and November to talk with your friends and family about race relations. Our country needs the healing and you can make it happen.

To drill down into this fear, there is certainly a widely held belief that older white voters won't support Barack Obama. Everyone says that Obama will win on the huge turnout of young voters, first-time voters, and people of color. But people think that older white voters will go for McCain. Actually, they probably will. But enough of them will decide to support Barack that he will be our next president.

I've heard tons of stories of young people convincing their parents and grandparents to support Barack Obama. This has happened in my own family, and I've heard it from congresspeople and governors. More recently, I've been hearing more and more stories of grandparents and elders talking to their grandchildren or other youth about why this is the year for them to get involved with politics and support Barack Obama. (OhanaObama.org is a wonderful website that documents the persuasive dynamic and helps you make your own connections.)

My simple belief is that our American elders have seen this country through tough times in the past. Although they generally tend to be "conservative," they also know that there are times when our country has to take a risk and embrace change to avoid calamity and maintain our greatness. They won't fall for the McCain bullshit that he'll bring 10% change. They may not be sure that Barack Obama is ready to be president, but they also know that no one ever is. When they stand in that booth, they'll think about FDR, Kennedy, and Reagan. They'll remember the depression, the 70's oil crunch, and the last eight years. They'll consider all they've seen happen with race relations in their lifetimes, and they'll consider how differently their grandchildren see things than they did at that age. They'll look at their options and realize that the real risk would be electing McCain. These older, white, and wise people will pull the lever for Barack Obama.

Because of people like them and people like you, we will bridge those generational and racial divides when our country comes together on November 4 to elect Barack Obama to be President of the United States.

This will be another close election. Barack Obama will only win with 50-52% of the national vote. Make sure he wins with your vote and the votes of all those people that you're going to contact four times between now and November 4!