North Carolina Presidential Primary Primer

Submitted by Betsy Muse on Thu, 04/03/2008 - 10:39am

It looks like North Carolina will play a part in selecting the Democratic nominee for President of the United States. I realize I might be the only person at BlueNC excited about this, but I think it's good for the state and it's good for the North Carolina Democratic Party. There will be stepped up efforts to register voters and organize GOTV efforts that can be built on for the general election coming from both the Clinton and the Obama campaigns.


With the help of the NCDP the State Board of Elections and a tiny bit of knowledge about my home state, I've put together a guide to the presidential primary as it will work in North Carolina.
North Carolina selects its delegates on a proportional representation system. The following tables show how the delegates are distributed in the system.

Pledged
Type of
Delegate		 Number of
Delegates
Allocated		 Delegate M/F
Allocation		 Number of
Alternates
Allocated		 Alternate M/F
Allocation		 Date of
Selection		 Selecting Body
and Filing
Requirements
District-level 77 38/39 12 6/6 May 17, 2008 Congressional
District
Presidential
Preference
Caucuses - Notice
of candidacy due
4/25/2008
Party Leader/
Elected Official
PLEO		 12 6/6 N/A N/A June 21, 2008 State Convention
Notice of
Candidacy
Due 5/30/2008
At-Large 26 11/15 7 3/4 June 21, 2008 State Convention
Notice of
Candidacy Due
5/30/2008


UnPledged
Type of
Delegate		 Number of
Delegates
Allocated		 Delegate M/F
Allocation		 Number of
Alternates
Allocated		 Alternate M/F
Allocation		 Date of
Selection		 Selecting Body
and Filing
Requirements
Add-ons 2 1/1 N/A N/A June 21, 2008 State Convention
Letter of
Interest to State
Party Chair Due
6/6/2008
DNC Members 9 3/6 N/A N/A N/A Automatic
Democratic
Governor		 1 1/0 N/A N/A N/A Automatic
Democratic
Members of
Congress		 7 7/0 N/A N/A N/A Automatic


As you can see from the charts, North Carolina selects most of its delegates based on how each congressional district votes. All other pledged delegates will be assigned based on the same proportions as the popular vote. Is it possible in North Carolina for one candidate to win in delegates while the other carries the popular vote? A close look at each congressional district might help us figure that out.

The following is an outline of our congressional districts and how voting in each might impact the voting and selection of the 77 delegates that are chosen based on the primary results in each congressional district.


1st Congressional District - Rep. G.K. Butterfield, Democrat - 6 Delegates


Total Voters Dem Rep Una
Congressional Dist. : 01 369,060 251,898 66,795 50,367


Total Voters Black White America Asian Multi- Race Other Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 01 369,060 180,830 180,342 1,821 444 671 3,087 1,855



Total Voters Hispanic Not Hisp Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 01 369,060 1,221 329,319 38,520


North Carolina's 1st Congressional District is located in the northeast corner of North Carolina and has almost the same number of registered African Americans and Whites. The district is about 48% urban and 52% rural. This area of the state has deep roots in tobacco farming with many of the rural areas being fairly densely populated as a result of the labor traditionally required to produce tobacco. The district is about 51% African American and has about 57,000 more women registered to vote than men. The percentage of Democrats who are African American is 63%.

Based on how African Americans are voting in other states we can probably assume that the 1st CD will go for Barack Obama in May. One thing to keep in mind is that this district is more rural and Clinton tends to win in more rural areas. There is no large urban area like Raleigh or Charlotte which makes GOTV a challenge. African American voters from a more rural area might not trend for Obama as heavily as urban voters. One thing Obama has going for him in this area of the state is the endorsement of Rep. G.K. Butterfield. He is very respected and his endorsement will carry a lot of weight.

For some historical perspective, both Gore and Kerry carried the district with 57% of the vote. Butterfield has won with at least 64% of the vote in each election year since the special election in 2002 and his predecessor, Frank Ballance, won with 64% of the vote. This district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Dem +9.


2nd Congressional District - Rep. Bob Etheridge, Democrat - 6 Delegates


Total Voters Dem Rep Una
Congressional Dist. : 02 387,945 197,341 117,457 73,147


Total Voters Black White America Asian Multi- Race Other Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 02 387,945 117,654 255,029 1,479 1,109 1,150 8,628 2,890

Total Voters Hispanic Not Hisp Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 02 387,945 4,709 342,536 40,700



North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District skirts around and contains the outskirts of large urban areas, but is still considered slightly more rural than urban. There are more registered Democrats than Republicans however, many of the Democrats tend to vote Republican for national office. This is one of those districts that voted for Mike Easley (D) for governor and Bush for president in the same election year. The 2nd District, like the 1st CD, has also traditionally been tobacco country. It is the home to the largest population of Hispanics in the state. Many came to work in chicken and hog processing plants. There are more Democrats than Republicans and African Americans make up 49% of the Democratic Party.

Again, I think the 2nd is hard to call. If African American voters (rural and urban) go for Obama in the same ratio, and turnout is as high as we've seen in other parts of the country, Obama could carry this district in the primary. If the rural voters go for Clinton in the same numbers, she could make it close. Etheridge lined up behind Edwards like all other NC Democratic congressional members. For some reason I don't see him endorsing either Obama or Clinton.

Bush won the district in both 2000 and 2004. Kerry and Gore each received 46% of the vote. Etheridge won in 2002 with 65% of the vote, in 2004 with 62% of the vote and again in 2006 with 65% of the vote. With a majority of registered Democrats, this district has a Cook Partisan voting index of Rep +3 which should give you an idea of how conservative many Democrats are in the 2nd District.


3rd Congressional District - Rep. Walter Jones, Republican - 4 Delegates



Total Voters Dem Rep Una
Congressional Dist. : 03 409,560 173,523 148,881 87,156


Total Voters Black White America Asian Multi- Race Other Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 03 409,560 61,158 337,537 775 952 839 6,193 2,106



Total Voters Hispanic Not Hisp Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 03 409,560 2,911 366,722 39,927


North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District hugs our beautiful coast. It is overwhelmingly white and while populated with more registered Democrats than Republicans it is also fairly conservative. Like the 1st and 2nd CDs, the 3rd is made up of tobacco and hog farmers and includes the tourist industry fueled by vacationers to the Outer Banks. This district is overwhelmingly white and the Democratic Party is 29% African American.

With a mostly rural electorate it would be easy to guess this district would vote for Clinton, but many Democrats in this district are so conservative they won't bother to vote in the Democratic primary. I think this district goes for Clinton, but the voter registration is misleading and makes it hard to guess.

The 3rd went for Bush with 68% of the vote in 2004 and Jones has had no trouble winning election each year. The 3rd has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Rep +15.


4th Congressional District - Rep. David Price, Democrat - 9 Delegates


Total Voters Dem Rep Una
Congressional Dist. : 04 512,874 231,277 151,010 130,587



Total Voters Black White America Asian Multi- Race Other Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 04 512,874 93,600 389,149 947 7,255 2,105 13,559 6,259



Total Voters Hispanic Not Hisp Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 04 512,874 5,266 449,140 58,468


Congressman David Price is a strong progressive leader in North Carolina's 4th CD. While the district is considered the 3rd most Democratic district in the state, it is home to Chapel Hill which is arguably one of the most liberal cities in the state. The 4th is home to Duke, UNC-Chapel Hill and the Research Triangle Park. This district has one of the highest concentrations of Ph.D.s in the nation and many of their jobs tend to rely on government funding. The 4th is about 83% urban. The liberal havens of Chapel Hill and Durham are balanced somewhat by the heavily Republican suburbs of Raleigh. The district is pretty overwhelmingly white with the Democratic Party being 34% African American voters.

With all these facts in mind and looking at the voting in other states it is easy to imagine this district will vote heavily for Barack Obama.

The 4th went for both Kerry (55%) and Gore (53%). This district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Dem +6.


5th Congressional District - Rep. Virginia Foxx, Republican - 5 Delegates



Total Voters Dem Rep Una
Congressional Dist. : 05 421,847 145,258 194,361 82,228


Total Voters Black White America Asian Multi- Race Other Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 05 421,847 27,481 386,976 439 782 619 3,549 2,001


Total Voters Hispanic Not Hisp Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 05 421,847 2,194 388,136 31,517


North Carolina's 5th Congressional District spans from the suburbs of Winston-Salem to the small town of Mt. Airy. There are areas of the 5th that are heavily rural. It is home to Appalachian State University, the headquarters of Lowe's and is host to both chicken and tree farms. The district has very few minority voters and fewer Democrats than Republicans. Democrats tend to be more traditional Southern Democrats in this district. This is another district that has substantially more white voters than African American. The Democratic Party is 15% African American

It is easy to see the 5th CD going for Hillary Clinton. There are always recruiting opportunities in college towns, so with time to register more students the Obama campaign could boost his numbers in Boone.

The 5th is currently represented by Virginia Foxx who recently embarrassed herself in front of the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce. While the Chamber is typically seen as a conservative organization and Foxx is certainly very conservative, her fear mongering brought laughter and her performance was seen as a bit of a joke. It's probably best if Foxx stays put in the mountains where the Republicans are far less sophisticated and will buy into her Democratic doomsday scenario. The 5th voted heavily for Bush in both 2000 and 2004. It has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Rep. +15


6th Congressional District - Rep. Howard Coble, Republican - 5 Delegates



Total Voters Dem Rep Una
Congressional Dist. : 06 438,486 144,385 204,074 90,027


Total Voters Black White America Asian Multi- Race Other Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 06 438,486 37,952 391,277 930 1,528 577 4,220 2,002


Total Voters Hispanic Not Hisp Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 06 438,486 2,151 407,878 28,457


Like the 5th CD, North Carolina's 6th Congressional District has few minority voters and is heavily Republican. It trends a little more urban with help from parts of Greensboro and High Point. Furniture manufacturing, chicken processing, the Furniture Mart (not in the 6th, but close enough to impact the district) and tourism/golfing have helped shape the district. African American voters make up 21% of the Democratic Party in the 6th District.

While much of the geography is rural, many of the voters are located near Greensboro, Asheboro and High Point. Most of the Democrats I know in this area trend very liberal, but my feeling is they are in the minority and that most Democrats are more moderate in their politics. My guess is this district will go Clinton and I'm not sure how close it will be.

Rep. Howard Coble is a very partisan Republican. He has held the office since 1984. This district went big for George Bush in both 2000 and 2004. It has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Rep. +17.


7th Congressional District - Rep. Mike McIntyre, Democrat - 6 Delegates



Total Voters Dem Rep Una
Congressional Dist. : 07 425,521 214,329 127,860 83,332


Total Voters Black White America Asian Multi- Race Other Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 07 425,521 84,478 309,390 22,452 1,018 828 4,662 2,693


Total Voters Hispanic Not Hisp Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 07 425,521 2,196 386,085 37,240


The 7th Congressional District in North Carolina is also traditional tobacco farming country, but hog farming has now replaced tobacco in importance. This district includes Wilmington and parts of Fayetteville. The tourist industry, film industry and military have all had an impact on the voter makeup of the district. The 7th District has more Democrats than Republicans, but they tend to be conservative Democrats. The Democratic Party is 34% African American voters.

The district is more rural than urban and more white than minority. Mike McIntyre is considered a Blue Dog Democrat and is one of North Carolina's more conservative Democratic representatives in Washington. He is considered a match for his district. McIntyre has won re-election with 73% of the vote in last two election cycles. Like other rural districts with a majority of white voters, the 7th is probably a Clinton district. While this district has the same percentage of African American voters in the Democratic Party as the 4th Congressional District, it is the differences white Democratic voters that probably make this a Clinton district.

Bush won this district in both 2000 and 2004. With far more Democrats than Republicans, this district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Rep. +3.


8th Congressional District - Rep. Robin Hayes, Republican - 5 Delegates


Total Voters Dem Rep Una
Congressional Dist. : 08 388,705 190,227 117,671 80,807


Total Voters Black White America Asian Multi- Race Other Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 08 388,705 106,815 262,301 4,261 1,815 1,103 9,270 3,140


Total Voters Hispanic Not Hisp Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 08 388,705 5,116 347,094 36,495


North Carolina's 8th Congressional District is made up of mostly rural counties with Mecklenburg and parts of Cabarrus and Cumberland providing the district's urban and exurban voters. Robin Hayes won office in 1998 and is best known for lying to his constituents with his promise to oppose CAFTA, the Central America Free Trade Agreement and then voting for it at literally the last minute. CAFTA and its free trade siblings have decimated the manufacturing industries that provided many, if not most, of the jobs in the 8th District. Home to some of the counties with the highest unemployment in the state, 8th District voters are hungry for change.

African Americans make up 45% of the Democratic Party in the 8th District. Though many white Democrats tend to be more conservative in this district I think Obama will carry the 8th.

Bush won this district in both 2000 and 2004. It has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Rep. +3.

9th Congressional District - Rep. Sue Myrick, Republican - 6 Delegates


Total Voters Dem Rep Una
Congressional Dist. : 09 515,034 167,099 221,573 126,362


Total Voters Black White America Asian Multi- Race Other Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 09 515,034 59,378 436,324 1,099 3,004 839 9,651 4,739



Total Voters Hispanic Not Hisp Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 09 515,034 5,091 476,483 33,460


The 9th CD includes parts of Mecklenburg, Union and Gaston Counties. The portion of Union County that is included is host to palatial homes that are considered suburbs of Charlotte by most who live there. Union County is the 7th fastest growing county in the country which has proven a strain on infrastructure and a challenge to the all-Republican County leadership. (The FBI is currently investigating possible quid pro quo in the awarding of sewer hookups.) Gaston County was home to textile manufacturing and other industry and the areas of Mecklenburg include conservative suburban neighborhoods. This district is overwhelmingly white with African American voters making up 27% of the Democratic voters in the District.

This district is 85% urban and has substantially more white voters than African American voters. There is fairly strong support for Hillary Clinton in the Mecklenburg County area, but my feeling is Obama will carry this district because of the strength of the more liberal urban voters in Mecklenburg County.

The current representative is Sue Myrick. She has has no trouble winning re-election. George Bush won in this district in both 2000 and 2004 with 63% of the vote. It has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Rep. +12.

10th Congressional District - Rep. Patrick McHenry, Republican - 5 Delegates



Total Voters Dem Rep Una
Congressional Dist. : 10 411,425 147,701 178,085 85,639


Total Voters Black White America Asian Multi- Race Other Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 10 411,425 32,764 370,767 399 1,499 438 3,546 2,012
Total Voters Hispanic Not Hisp Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 10 411,425 1,888 380,261 29,276


North Carolina's 10th Congressional District stretches through the beautiful Blue Ridge mountains of the state. It is traditional textile country with some cotton farming throw in. Like the 8th District, the 10th has been hit hard with textile mill closings which results in high unemployment in some areas.

The district is split equally between rural and urban voters. There are substantially more white voters than African American and more Republicans than Democrats. African American voters comprise 18% of the voters in the Democratic Party. My feeling is Hillary Clinton will win this district.

The district is currently represented by Patrick McHenry, an unpopular Republican. He has almost as many Republican detractors as Democratic. George Bush won this district handily in both 2000 and 2004. It has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of Rep. +15.

11th Congressional District - Rep. Heath Shuler, Democrat - 6 Delegates



Total Voters Dem Rep Una
Congressional Dist. : 11 472,465 190,260 166,427 115,778


Total Voters Black White America Asian Multi- Race Other Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 11 472,465 16,220 443,339 3,465 788 833 4,391 3,429


Total Voters Hispanic Not Hisp Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 11 472,465 1,875 425,624 44,966


The 11th CD is home to North Carolina's newest Democratic congressman, Heath Shuler. Shuler won in 2006 ousting Charles Taylor, an ethically challenged Republican. The area has been traditionally supported by the textile industry and tree farming. Like the 8th District, the 11th has been hit hard with textile mill closings. Tourism and trees are important industries.


The district's largest urban area is Asheville. Like the 10th it is substantially more white than black, however it has more registered Democrats than Republicans probably due to the liberal leanings of Asheville. The Democratic Party's voting pool is 7% African American. Like the 10th, I think Hillary Clinton will win this district, but with a narrower margin than the 10th because of Asheville's influence. I might be giving Asheville way too much influence here. It will be fun to see how far off I am.

George Bush won this district in both 2000 and 2004. The district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R +7.

12th Congressional District - Rep. Mel Watt, Democrat - 7 Delegates



Total Voters Dem Rep Una
Congressional Dist. : 12 400,219 227,283 98,901 74,035


Total Voters Black White America Asian Multi- Race Other Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 12 400,219 187,696 197,767 938 2,287 1,253 6,326 3,952
Total Voters Hispanic Not Hisp Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 12 400,219 3,538 358,754 37,927


North Carolina's 12th Congressional District is represented by Congressman Mel Watt. He has represented the district since 1992. The 12th is a winding, long, narrow district that connects many of North Carolina's largest cities.

The district is the state's most urban district. It has a near majority of registered African American voters and more Democrats than Republicans. African Americans make up 69% of the Democratic voters. If Obama works hard to register voters in this district and voting follows national trends, this district will vote overwhelmingly for Obama.

This district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D +11.

13th Congressional District - Rep. Brad Miller, Democrat - 7 Delegates




Total Voters Dem Rep Una
Congressional Dist. : 13 429,273 216,474 121,759 91,040
Total Voters Black White America Asian Multi- Race Other Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 13 429,273 114,708 298,204 920 2,579 1,481 7,576 3,805
Total Voters Hispanic Not Hisp Undesig
Congressional Dist. : 13 429,273 3,729 385,375 40,169


The 13th Congressional District for North Carolina is represented by Congressman Brad Miller. It includes cities that were once quiet factory towns surrounded by tobacco farms. The district is far more urban today than it once was and the sleepy towns are long gone.

This district has a fairly large African American population and is more urban than rural. Voters in the Democratic Party are 43% African American. Again, if national trends continue the 13th Congressional District will vote for Obama.

In 2000 this district narrowly voted for Bush and in 2004 it narrowly voted for Kerry. It has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D +2.

Summary



I don't know that there's too much exciting to see here. We can play with it all we want, but just like any other election it will depend on GOTV - which campaign gets its voters to the polls. Who will win each district and by how much? I have no idea. I was just guessing.


Each time I tried to work out numbers I threw them out. At first I was frustrated because I love playing with the numbers. Now, I'm excited because the very thing that frustrates me now - increased and possibly unprecedented Democratic voter registration and turnout - is what will frustrate the Republicans in November.
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I know some of my fonts are different

Submitted by Betsy Muse on Thu, 04/03/2008 - 10:42am.

and the smaller tables are a bit messy. Google docs isn't as easy to compose in once the code is so long and complicated you can't find anything and that's where I am. Fixing the code is next to impossible. I'll keep working on it, but I had to get this posted. I've been putting it together forever. Click on the maps for larger versions of them.

Also, I think I forgot my links to NCDP and the SBOE. I'll get them posted soon.



***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

Everything, absolutely everything.

Submitted by Robert P. on Thu, 04/03/2008 - 2:33pm.

One of the pitfalls of childhood is that one doesn't have to understand something to feel it. - Carlos Ruiz Zafon

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Wow.

Submitted by James on Thu, 04/03/2008 - 10:42am.

You've been busy!

Bookmarked.

I'm running for a delegate spot in the 4th!

Submitted by Graig on Thu, 04/03/2008 - 11:16am.

I think it'll be difficult to be one of 4 males chosen. But I think it will be very exciting to represent the Obama campaign at the convention. I'd love to hear from others who are running for delegate spots. And I'd love to hear advice from anyone who has gone through the process before.

Thanks for such a thorough post.

Graig

What does M/F stand for?

Submitted by Branden on Thu, 04/03/2008 - 12:37pm.

Male/female ratio (or allocation total)?

EDIT: Oh, I see that it does. What's the history behind that? Apart from the 19th Amendment, I mean. :) Was this in response to a freeze-out of women delegates historically, the result of a consent decree, something else?

--
relocating from Indianapolis, IN to RTP, NC soon; got any advice for me?

I wouldn't recommend drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity for everyone, but they've always worked for me. -- Hunter S. Thompson

--
Garner, NC

I wouldn't recommend drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity for everyone, but they've always worked for me. -- Hunter S. Thompson

How many men...how many women

Submitted by Betsy Muse on Thu, 04/03/2008 - 12:39pm.

I don't know how long it's been like that.



***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

I have an update coming that will help a little better

Submitted by Betsy Muse on Thu, 04/03/2008 - 11:43am.

I'm way out of my element in making predictions with stuff like this, but I thought if I put the information out there that folks from each district could chime in with what they are hearing from likely voters in their district, etc.

My predictions are probably completely and totally off. I have no experience doing it really.....not at this level. It was fun thinking about it, but I don't want anyone to place any bets on my predictions. :D



***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

Delegate from the 9th

Submitted by TrueMeckDem on Thu, 04/03/2008 - 12:27pm.

I am trying for one of the three male spots from the 9th district.

"jump in where you can and hang on"
Briscoe Darling to Sheriff Andy

That was a lot of fun to read, Betsy

Submitted by funluvn on Thu, 04/03/2008 - 12:31pm.

I'm looking forward to seeing the final tally and seeing how you did.
I think you are going to be pretty close on your prognosticating. (I'm not going to weigh in, because every time I do, I turn out to be Nostradumbass).

;-)

North Carolina. Turning the South Blue!

North Carolina. Turning the South Blue!

Nostradumbass

Submitted by Betsy Muse on Thu, 04/03/2008 - 12:34pm.

HaHaHaHaHaHa........ I laughed so hard at that I just about choked on my lunch!

I really didn't go out on any limbs and I used very basic information. I will never be a Chris Bowers who keys in what people eat for Sunday supper to figure how they will vote.

Glad you enjoyed it.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

People with Bad Taste in Music tend to Vote Republican

Submitted by Jerimee on Thu, 04/03/2008 - 12:52pm.

Just kidding, just kidding. But it looks like we've lost the Glam rock vote.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080403/pl_nm/usa_politics_rockers_dc

- - - - -
McCain - The Third Bush Term

- - - - -
http://twitter.com/Jerimee

If this were true

Submitted by funmerlin on Thu, 04/03/2008 - 3:06pm.

A sampling of our local FM stations would doom us all!

8th District Delegate for Clinton

Submitted by captsfufp on Thu, 04/03/2008 - 1:37pm.

I do get the "affirmative action" preference of being under-35, but it has never been clear, besides sex, how those other factors play a part in how the delegates are chosen. Race, age, sexual preference...don't know how those play a part during the district delegate selection.

I, too, wonder how this will all work, come district convention. Even if I do get selected, I'll then be faced with placing a Denver trip on the ol' credit card...but I don't care, this would be my first convention!!

...though I do hear hotels will be tough to get, and that most of them are NOT near where the convention will be. Bring your walking shoes!

If you live in the 10th

Submitted by Jerimee on Thu, 04/03/2008 - 2:23pm.

If you live in the 10th you may be interested in this event:

http://bluenc.com/10th-congressional-district-democratic-party-rally-and...

- - - - -
McCain - The Third Bush Term

- - - - -
http://twitter.com/Jerimee

Re: 6th district dems trending for Clinton

Submitted by Linda on Thu, 04/03/2008 - 10:28pm.

Nah. I don't think so. If the straw polls in Moore County are leaning Obama, then I'd give you dollars to donuts that the rest of the 6th is trending that way, as well. I think it will be close, but I think in the end the district will go to Obama. Have there been statewide polls by actual polling firms by congressional district?

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi
Pointing at Naked Emperors

I don't think by congressional district, no

Submitted by Betsy Muse on Fri, 04/04/2008 - 5:48am.

I'm not sure any district is trending Clinton. I was just basing it on past voting trends. rural vs. urban.....that sort of thing. It's so hard to predict with the expected turnout. I'm as excited about that as anything.



***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

Me, too

Submitted by Linda on Fri, 04/04/2008 - 5:32pm.

Our precinct, which usually struggles to have meetings of 5, and has usually only met on the mandatory times, has now had 2 subsequent meetings - because the precinct wanted to meet! That's what is so cool. We're seeing all kinds of people coming out of the woodwork, wanting to man the polling place on primary day, wanting to canvass neighborhoods. WANTING to do it. Amazing.

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi
Pointing at Naked Emperors

Well Done!

Submitted by Roy J. Carter on Fri, 04/04/2008 - 12:36am.

Excellent job Betsy!
However, please don't ask Foxx to stay in the mountains, we don't want her here either. It is much better for all if she continues embarrassing herself in public venues. She is accomplishing one of her goals and that's transparency in government. Excruciating transparency.

Hee hee!

Submitted by Linda on Fri, 04/04/2008 - 4:09am.

Excruciating transparency.

I suspect sometimes the sun shines a bit too brightly for Ms. Foxx.

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi
Pointing at Naked Emperors

Will do, Roy

Submitted by Betsy Muse on Fri, 04/04/2008 - 5:43am.

Come on out and Play Ginny! We'll be nice. Really we will.

Maybe she will do a live-blog



***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

Stunning

Submitted by gregflynn on Fri, 04/04/2008 - 6:22am.

Quite a piece of work there Betsy. A comment from the NextNewsRoom Conference yesterday:

Journalists always laugh when someone makes a 'journalists can't do math' joke. Classic.

Also been following Joe Trippi who made these comments recently:

Super Delegates tell me that Clinton campaign is not asking for support, just that they stay neutral. Obama may lead among supers by mid May

and

It is coming down to NC. Clinton upsets in NC or withdraws

referencing the end game, in a USAToday article that quotes him. "Why the Democratic race could end in North Carolina"

USAToday has dropped off my radar though. The only time I'm aware of it is when I get a free copy at a hotel.

A piece of work?

Submitted by Betsy Muse on Fri, 04/04/2008 - 7:22am.

That's not always positive in my house. :D



***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

piece de resistance

Submitted by gregflynn on Fri, 04/04/2008 - 7:53am.

;P

I figured a contrarian like yourself would pick up on that. Just checking to see if you're actually reading.

You crack me up

Submitted by Betsy Muse on Fri, 04/04/2008 - 8:17am.

....so it's a piece to resist?

;-)



***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

I keep coming back to this piece for reference, Betsy.

Submitted by Linda on Sat, 04/26/2008 - 2:32pm.

just wanted to mention again that you did a fantastic job with it.

Thank you.

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi
Pointing at Naked Emperors

Thanks, I linked to it

Submitted by Betsy Muse on Sat, 04/26/2008 - 2:40pm.

at MyDD on a front page post and got some nice emails. I really meant to build on it before the primary, but there's this little thing called time that I don't seem to have enough of. Now, I'm thinking it will serve as a nice base to show how NC can vote for a Democratic president for the first time since 1976.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



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Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.