Perdue, Moore, Obama, Hillary and Laura


Laura Leslie has an interesting take on the relationship between the presidential and gubernatorial races.

Char-O’s Mark Johnson and the N&O’s Rob Christensen weighed in on how a meaningful national primary might influence NC’s state-level races. I think they both make good points, but I have to say - I think the two who stand to gain the most from activity in their respective party primaries are Bev Perdue and Fred Smith.

Dem Bev Perdue does a little better than Richard Moore among women voters, and a lot better among African-American voters. So for her, it doesn’t matter whether Obama or Clinton has the lead - all she needs is a close contest. (PPP’s Tom Jensen agrees.)

Moore does better among independents, but he needs for them to request a Dem ballot – and that might get tougher if Huckabee’s still in the GOP race. If the battle between McCain and Huckabee is still in play, Moore could lose potential votes if independent supporters flock to the other side to back McCain in the higher-profile race.

On the GOP side, Fred Smith’s probably hoping Huck’s still racking up delegates come May. Smith needs conservative voters, but if McCain’s leading the ticket, they may not show up. If Huckabee’s still actively fighting for delegates, that could draw in conservatives, which would benefit Smith over McCrory.

Of course, a McCain/Huck faceoff might generate higher independent turnout, too, which could conceivably benefit McCrory. But a tight GOP race will almost certainly generate higher turnout among base conservatives than independents. And even if a lot of indies show up, McCrory will have to share them with Moore. So I’d bet the Mayor’s hoping the GOP dust settles well before May.

Most of this makes sense to me, though I have a hard time imagining a big wave of turnout among those who lean right, whether independents or Republicans. John McBush is fundamentally uninspiring and the Huckster will truly be on his last leg by then.

Does anyone think Laura's right about McCrory and Moore appealing to the same base of independents? I know those guys look like the same person, but it seems a bit weird to imagine they're attractive to the same crowd.

Comments

I think.......

I think Richard Moore is very attractive. McCrory's eyes are too beady.

Oh, Wait! You didn't mean it that way......

Oh Well.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



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Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

no, no, you are right to look at eyes

If Americans had looked harder they might have seen that Bush's eyes were way too close together, and beady, for him to be a good president.

wow, scary.

ggrrrr i got to figure out to do pictures

..

It takes awhile, but you can find a good overview

Here.

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We are not amused.

The Obama/indy factor.

they don't seem to mention that Obama might steal away indy's from McCain/Huck. Which helps who?

One of the pitfalls of childhood is that one doesn't have to understand something to feel it. - Carlos Ruiz Zafon

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

That seems more likely to me, too

But then again, I live in Chapel Hill (where you live) and everyone knows we have no idea how the real world works.

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We are not amused.

Yeah -

How are things in that Ivory Tower, anyhow?

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

We have our heads in the clouds....

One of the pitfalls of childhood is that one doesn't have to understand something to feel it. - Carlos Ruiz Zafon

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

That's better than tucked firmly in your nether regions :)

Hey...my hubby is at some leadership/management seminar thingy at the Franklin Hotel in Chapel Hill. He says it's a pretty nice place. I miss Franklin Street....and The Happy Store....and Purdy's....at least I think I'm remembering the old names correctly.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

Don't forget lasagna at Rathskeller's...

One of my writer buddies from the Intertubes came to RTP on a business trip a few years ago, and she wanted to take me to a "really nice restaurant" (expense account) to celebrate us actually meeting in person.

The first place that popped into my head was Rathskeller's. My dad used to take our family there a couple of times a year back in the Seventies, and we always had a great time.

So I asked her, "Do you like cheese?"

"Sure. I love cheese."

"I'm talking about, you know, a lot of cheese."

"Great. There's no such thing as too much cheese."

"Alrighty then. It's on."

So when she was less than halfway done with her lasagna, she said, "This is...an incredible amount of cheese here."

"Is it enough cheese? I can get more cheese just by waving at that guy over there. Hold on a second..."

"I swear to God, if you ask for more cheese, I will dump it on your head when it arrives."

"I was just checking..."

Rathskeller's cockroaches

They would crawl across the table while we ate and I was always finding them in my ice tea. Crunchiest lasagna in town.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

The rat is gone.

They auctioned off all their stuff recently.

One of the pitfalls of childhood is that one doesn't have to understand something to feel it. - Carlos Ruiz Zafon

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Roaches at the Rat

Remarkably enough, the Raleigh Rathskellar also had very healthy roaches. We, too, would bear witness to their travels around the walls, up and down the table, the booths, etc . . . Happy, healthy critters they were.

All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing
-Edmund Burke

So that's what that was...

I thought it was a really big crunchy ripe olive, with...legs and antenna...

*gack*

I don't know enough about McCrory

but it does seem like Moore is going to have to pull a lot of independents, because most of the Democrats that I talk to locally are definitely Perdue people.

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

Not the same

In NH they kept talking about the battle for independents being between McCain and Obama. Except the actual numbers showed that something along the lines of 3% of all voters were split between those two.

Independents who are going to vote in the Dem primary look nothing like independents who are going to vote in the Rep primary. Yeah, both campaigns might START calling through the same group of people. But they wont end up "fighting" for voters.

"Keep the Faith"

"Keep the Faith"

From your experience

give us an idea of the difference. Please?

Be the change you wish to see in the world. --Gandhi

well

on paper independents are between Democrats and Republicans. And the media assumes that every Democrat is generally liberal, and every Republican conservative and every Independent is a moderate.

The truth is that even outside of the normal range of beliefs that you find in either of the two main parties, Independents run the gamut. Some independents make Ralph Nader look conservative. And some independents would think David Duke is a sellout.

In fact, most indpendents generally vote more for one party than the other, and finding anyone who votes Republican 50% of the time and Democrat 50% would be very tough to find. So, two people who vote 60-40 one way or the other might both be independents, but they arent the same type of voters.

"Keep the Faith"

"Keep the Faith"

yeah....the one who votes Republican 60% of the time

is more than half nuts.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.