Prelude to a primary
Submitted by James on Thu, 06/25/2009 - 8:01am
According to Roll Call, the potential field of Democrats who are likely to compete to take on Richard Burr include:
- Dan Blue
- Cal Cunningham
- Ken Lewis (already declared)
- Jim Neal
- Elaine Marshall
- Mike McIntyre
At the risk of being overly prescriptive, let's use this thread to get thoughts about three things: money, primary odds, and general election odds. Said another way, what are your thoughts about the ability of each candidate to raise millions of dollars, strengths and weaknesses when it comes to competing in the primary, and the strengths and weaknesses vis-a-vis Richard Burr.
I haven't included Richard Moore on the list because I've heard no indications that he's seriously considering a run. Though I have no inside information, I personally don't believe Jim Neal will run, but I've included him because Roll Call did.
- James's blog
- 1325 reads
What are Burr's strengths?
And who can best speak to them with authority?
Burr is the Ranking Member on the Veterans Affairs Committee. Are any of our possible candidates veterans?
He is also on the Armed Services Committee. That's important to a wide swath of NC voters. Can any of our potential Democrats speak with authority about the Armed Services?
He's also on the Select Committee on Intelligence. Will any of our candidates be able to debate Richard Burr with authority on issues of National Security as they relate to Intelligence?
Burr's experience with these three issues has been gained solely during his Congressional and Senate service. Which of the above mentioned Democrats can best undermine Burr's purely academic knowledge of these subjects-- the pillars of his service-- with boots on the ground, first hand experience?
A higher priority for me is not to be be owned.....
by the 'big' corporations. We had a feeling about some of the last group in 2008, and sure enough, their true 'corporation red' colors have bloomed! Since I don't know much about these candidates on James's list, I'm hoping to get some insight from my fellow bloggers. It seems we have replaced some Republicans with people who think the same, but list their political party with a different name.
As far as I can tell, only Cal Cunningham
has actual military experience. Mike McIntyre serves on the House Armed Services Committee as well as the Agriculture Committee. He is also Vice Chair of the Subcommittee on Terrorism and Unconventional Threats and Capabilities. I see no where on any biography of Rep. McIntyre where he has spent any time in the Armed Forces.
North Carolina. Turning the South Blue!
Burr's strengths
Now there's an oxy-moron.
From what I've experienced,
From what I've experienced, the only thing Burr is really good at is autographing 8" x 10" glossies of himself while presiding over the Senate so his constituents (my family and me) can watch from the gallery.
Who can speak to his weaknesses
I wish there were a doctor in the race who could slam Burr on everything he's done to stall health care reform and every dollar he's taken from their special interest groups. That's where Burr has done the most harm.
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
Robert Wilson
Don't forget Robert Wilson, Elaine Marshall's legislative liaison, who may run if Marshall doesn't.
Some assumptions I'm working with
On the primary:
Regardless of who's in the primary, turn-out will be low and narrow. That means two things: (1) a ton of older voters and (2) a smaller core of activists. The I-85 corridor will swamp the rest of the state in terms of raw numbers.
Health care will still be a freakin' mess and Democrats will suffer from low enthusiasm across the board.
The only thing I see that will really energize the corridor is the candidacy of Mike McIntyre. As an anti-choice Democrat, he'll be subjected to a full-frontal assault. I would work actively against him.
A black candidate will be at a disadvantage in a low-turn out primary.
McIntyre has a war chest, but for others, money will be hard to come by. As a progressive, I feel I have been taken for granted and I will be reluctant to step up in the primary. Plus most people don't have disposable cash. That means the traditional wealthy interests will likely have more sway than usual, which is a lot.
The only proven fundraiser in the mix seems to be Marshall.
Cunningham will have to come out of the blocks raising money like hell to get momentum going. People want to see fundraising success before the jump on any bandwagons.
On the general
Burr will have nothing of value to show for his six years in office.
McIntyre would have a hard time beating Burr one-on-one. They are the same horse, so why change?
National defense will take a distant back seat to health policy and financial issues, unless Iran really heats up.
You know, for a state that has an advantage of more Democrats
holding seats in the State House, State Senate and US House of Representatives, we sure aren't seeming to pull in any of the progressives or heavy hitters into what should be a very competetive race against a do-nothing, little known incumbant US Senator.
What the hell is up with that? Why aren't more people stepping up and making noises about taking a look at running at this point?
North Carolina. Turning the South Blue!
I don't expect things to be settled
until well into the fall. There's a whole lot of who's waiting on whom to declare, with McIntyre apparently scaring off many contenders. If McIntyre does enter the race and deter centrists from running, he could single handledly destroy the Democratic Party in North Carolina. Because make no mistake, McIntyre is just another Richard Burr without a garage full of lawnmowers.
too early
The dynamics can change too quickly.
If a strong African American candidate enters another council of state primary race, you will see stronger turnout than usual in the African American community.
I am hoping we do get some good candidates in a primary for the Sec of Labor and Ag Commissioner slots.
A primary is good most of the time. You find out who will sink or swim in the general. Way too often I see candidates who have no primary, then they just want to rely on the party to win it for them.
huh?
Burr will either be forcibly retired or enjoying reelection before the 2012 races for council of state.
"Keep the Faith"
After hearing both Cal
After hearing both Cal Cunningham and Kenneth Lewis speak today I can say that we'd be blessed with either - both would draw real contrasts with Richard Burr.