Ranking NC Congressional Pickup Opportunities
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During the last cycle the political world was obsessed with rankings. Who had the best pickup opportunity? Which incumbent was most likely to fall? Should this race be #9 or that race? How many seats would the Democratic Party win?
Well, the punditry is continuing this, giving us endless rankings of the ’08 presidential contenders, the top 10 this and the top 5 that. Well, I have decided to take this fun and exciting game to North Carolina.
Top Tier
#1 NC-08
In 2006 Larry Kissell came within a vote per precinct of unseating Robin Hayes. Both are prepared for a hard fought battle in 2008. Getting national attention this early in the cycle should help Larry’s campaign immensely.
Big questions:
What will the effect of a presidential race be? How much support will Larry get from the DCCC? Can Hayes fundraise with the specter of a national campaign hanging over his head, or will he abandoned by national Republicans early?
Second Tier
#2 NC-Sen
Elizabeth Dole is in big trouble. Her polling is atrocious and her war chest is tiny. However, without a declared candidate she is safe. By mid summer we should know whether to move her up or down.
Big questions:
How much money has she raised in the first quarter? Who will declare to run against her? Will she retire if a serious challenger comes along?
#3 NC-03
Walter Jones has grabbed headlines many times for his multiple stances on the Iraq War. In 2006, there were national rumors of a primary challenge, but there are now local whispers, and those whispers have actual names attached. With Marshall Adame already getting his campaign started, this will be an intriguing opportunity.
Big questions:
Will Jones be ‘primaried’? How much money can Marshall raise, and how much will Jones have available? Can we overcome the difficult partisan landscape?
#4 NC-05
Roger Sharpe shocked people around the country with his strong challenge to Virginia Foxx. The question for both sides is: Was this a fluke or an early message?
Big questions:
What will the effect of a presidential race be? Who will run for this seat?
Third Tier
#5 NC-10
This heavily Republican district isn’t the most friendly, nor is it cheap. However, Patrick McHenry has made few friends within the district, and word is that he has a candidate already working on building up a quiet run at the seat.
Big questions:
Can anyone overcome McHenry’s cash advantage? Will McHenry be hurt by his recent antics on the house floor or does everyone who supports him already know he is a jerk? Will questions surrounding his personal life cause a problem?
#6 NC-06
General reluctance to bring a credible challenge Howard Coble is a big detriment to chances for a pickup. However, if a challenger were to gain state party support, and if Coble retires (the most dogged rumor of every election cycle), this seat would vault into the top tier overnight.
Big questions:
How long will Coble stick around? Will he be given a true challenge or will his opponent go unsupported again?
#7 NC-09
Sue Myrick looks safe and secure. While she denies the rumors, there are many who believe she is eyeing a statewide run. Although it is extremely doubtful she would jump at the chance to lose to Moore or Perdue, if Dole retires she would be viewed as the most likely replacement candidate.
Big questions:
Who will take on this monumental task? If Myrick takes on a bigger task how much better would our chances be?
Conclusions:
In 2008 North Carolina will pick up at least one seat, making our delegation 8 out of 13 in the house. We have great opportunities with another two seats, and its not out of the realm of possibilities that we could make serious bids at four or five seats.
How can you help? Get candidates in races at every level. Unchallenged State House and State Senate races cause irreparable harm to our up-ticket men and women. Help out declared candidates such as Larry and Marshall. Encourage people you believe in to run.
BlueNC is dedicated to making North Carolina a more progressive and prosperous state. If your intention is to disrupt this effort, please find somewhere else to express your opinions.
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Comments
Thank you
For putting NC-3 in the 2nd tier. Those "local rumors" you're hearing of are strong.
Once again, Onslow County Commissioner Jim McLaughlin slammed Congressman Jones in his weekly (and unofficial, I'll add) update. He also traveled out of county to the Wayne County Republican Convention to confront Jones, Jr.
I'm working on a more detailed post, so I won't waste more space here.
With McLaughlin striking from the Right and Adame from the Left, I think it's safe to say that Jones, Jr's Congressional career is in grave danger.
Thomas S. Brock
www.brocknet.net
www.brocknet.net/WordPress/
OnslowCountyPolitics@gmail.com
http://onslowcountypolitics.brocknet.net
Thomas
What have YOU done today to make the world a better place?
Thomas
your posts are about my only source for local rumors right now so blog away.
I think a primary challenge in and of itself isnt that big of a deal for Jones. What matters is what you have told us about McLaughlin's ties to Pope. If Jones has a million dollar primary(go check the numbers on NC-10 in 2004) then he is dead in the water.
Draft Brad Miller -- NC Sen ActBlue :::Petition
"Keep the Faith"
I think it is a big deal, in that...
much like Chafee this year, he will have to run to the right to win the Republican nomination, or admit that the far-right is wrong. Either way, that places him in trouble against the Democratic opponent. Actually, if he runs as a centrist and wins, that could be trouble. If he moves far-right and wins, that would be good for Dems.
One man with courage makes a majority.
- Andrew Jackson
Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me
Tough to say
Given the nature of the district I am not so sure he could win running as a centrist. It is possible, given his name, but highly unlikely. Especially if his primary opponent is funded by someone like Art Pope, you could see some outside groups get in on the fight.
I think the most likely scenario in a primary is that he will run as a mainstream Republican. It wont be that hard for him to do, but he wont be confused for a moderate. Remember how Lieberman kept saying the war was the only thing he disagreed with the party on? I could see something similar. However, given his recent votes, that would be a tack to the right for Jones, opening him up to all sorts of questions.
It should be a very interesting fight.
Draft Brad Miller -- NC Sen ActBlue :::Petition
"Keep the Faith"
tubes
Lance, im waiting and willing to buy us some Drano. Please advise.
Draft Brad Miller -- NC Sen ActBlue :::Petition
"Keep the Faith"
just wanted you to know...
...i referenced you in my diary here
"...i feel that if a person can't communicate, the very least he can do is to shut up." --tom lehrer, january 1965
I think the primary challenge is important,
because it's indicative of a deep schism within the Republican Party.
Thomas S. Brock
www.brocknet.net
www.brocknet.net/WordPress/
OnslowCountyPolitics@gmail.com
http://onslowcountypolitics.brocknet.net
Thomas
What have YOU done today to make the world a better place?
absolutely
the big trick is to be able to step into the breach, as they say.
Draft Brad Miller -- NC Sen ActBlue :::Petition
"Keep the Faith"
Great Post, Blue
Encourage people you believe in to run.
That's really everything. Both the "encourage" and the "believe in."
Good job.
“All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players.” So enjoy the drama.
NC-05
Was not a fluke. It didn't hurt that Roger was a great candidate, but the anti-Foxx sentiment still resonates.
I have heard that Ryan Eller, a fellow Sharpie, is considering.
Matter of fact- and you heard it here first- I am entertaining thoughts of running myself.
I recently dropped out of my bid for Wilkes County chair because my interests are more nationally focused.
We'll just have to see how it goes. What do my fellow BlueNCers think?
I dont think it
was a fluke either. But that is something for others to decide. The best scenario is for us to view it as a sign and for Foxx to view it as a fluke. If the opposite happens we will get crushed.
As for you running, beating her will be about cash and time. If you can raise the former and have lots of the latter then the more the merrier.
Draft Brad Miller -- NC Sen ActBlue :::Petition
"Keep the Faith"
Tough call, to be sure
I think she's vulnerable in that she's an embarrassment, even for a big-time Republican district. I like Roger, but I don't think he was a strong candidate by a darn sight. A strong candidate would have taken the seat in 06 or just barely lost, setting up more of a dogfight for 08.
I think you'll need a high-profile Democrat from the 5th to run. And, right now, all of our eggs appear to be in the Joines basket. I think it'll take somebody with a lot of name recognition who's not seen as liberal. The phrase "pro-business Democrat" comes to mind.
I think Republican turnout in 08 will be abysmal, too. There's nobody for them to get excited about in the Prez race, and they are ashamed of Dole, too.
In spite of the negatives of Foxx and the national scene for them, we still need a heavyweight to take the race.
War is over if you want it.
It is often
about what is driving turnout. In presidential years, that always drives turnout. The difference between this and past years is the likelihood that the eventual Democratic nominee will actually spend money to do turnout and advertising here, which would help.
Also, if you have a situation where only one seat is being highly contested it is hard to do turnout and convince people. The more races there are the more volunteers. So on our side there are things like that we can help out.
On the Republican side they are absolutely going to be hurt by a lack of races. Also, many of these incumbents think they are 100% safe, which means they can be caught with their pants down, like Allen and Burns were. But, its a long hard process.
Draft Brad Miller -- NC Sen ActBlue :::Petition
"Keep the Faith"
What??
Well, let's just examine this a bit further.
Roger was a former State Senator, Harvard Educated with a degree in Divinity to boot. He was born and raised in the district, and oh, did I mention a former White House liason?
The only thing Roger didn't have was money. Even she pulled within 9% while being outspent a million bucks to less than a hundred grand.
Say what you want about the campaign, but Roger was an excellent candidate. A wealthy, pro-biz DINO would have done no better.
Just to set my own record straight, Crowbar
I love Roger and his resume, too (I put a sign in my 12TH DISTRICT yard for him, so that my 5th district neighbors would get some exposure to him).
But part of being a strong candidate these days, is being able to raise money or having it already.
And even though I'm on the most liberal fringe of folks in the Triad (or anywhere, for that matter), I'd rather have a Shuler than a Foxx. At least DINOs caucus with Ds and enable us to have control of Congress.
But, in an ideal world, we'd take the money out of it and elect a Congress full of Roger Sharpes.
War is over if you want it.
nice save n/t
Draft Brad Miller -- NC Sen ActBlue :::Petition
"Keep the Faith"
Well, it wasn't a fluke
because there wasn't that much of a statistical variation from the 2004 result when the national mood is taken into account.
I only see two pick-ups next year as we have to fight hard for NC-08 and the Senate along with playing defence in NC-11. And if Edwards is the nominee, it will help turnout in NC but campaigns will be starved for volunteers as everyone will be flocking to John.
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
I'm not sure
I agree with your methodology.
Sure, national mood played a part in 2006, but to what degree is difficult to measure.
Also, I do not think that Edwards (who I support) would drain volunteer resources any more than the other candidates.
Activists are loyal to the party moreso than the candidate. If you are going to phone bank for Edwards, you are going to phone bank for Hillary, or Obama, or whoever.
Should Edwards get the nomination, and if there is some "homer" effect, that would be beneficial as it would serve to get more Democrats to the polls thereby helping down-ticket.
Worst case scenario, it evens out.
A 2% gain isn't that statistically significant
In NC-09, Bill Glass (D-'06) ran a much smaller campaign than Jack Flynn (D-'04) did, with $10,000 instead of $50,000. Glass also hadn't lived in the district for more than 4 years, and had a much shorter CV than Flynn. Additionally, Glass went through 3 campaign managers ... and he still got 3% more than Flynn, losing 67-33% to Myrick. I think that counts as a "control" case.
Now, going from 40% to 50% is harder than going from 30% to 40%, but I don't see any deviation from the norm in NC-05. Sharpe kept up with Foxx's name-ID advantage and previous campaigns, and got the bump from the national mood, and gained 2%.
Additionally, since the Edwards HQ is in North Carolina, and with much of the Edwards network in North Carolina, it's going to be harder to find North Carolina based talent if Edwards wins the nomination. I did say he may help down-ticket in NC, but a lot of activists are going to help out that specific campaign in the fall of '08 under the impression that NC is in play for Edwards. If the nominee is Hillary, people are more likely to canvass or phone bank with the local parties or another candidate; most volunteers aren't MoveOn members who will gladly call other states. They want to win in NC. And while Edwards would help Democratic turnout in NC, you're still going to see a brain drain.
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
Key point
We arent talking about MoveOn members making calls into Ohio here. We are talking about local activists making local efforts.
If, as part of the Edwards campaign, people are canvassing in large areas (Greensboro, Raleigh, Charlotte) instead of close to their home, then you are right about the drain.
However, if we are talking about people doing turnout in their own areas then a Democrat is a Democrat. I think that Edwards will do much better in NC than Kerry did. Regardless of that conversation, in 2004, a Kerry voter was almost certainly going to vote mostly straight D in this state with that candidate.
So, if I am doing GOTV in Wilkes county it is going to help the NC-05 race AND edwards, regardless of who I am doing GOTV for.
Draft Brad Miller -- NC Sen ActBlue :::Petition
"Keep the Faith"
There's the rub
Edwards will help our turnout in every race here ... but in a race like this, just like Larry's race, you need a lot of good people going D2D and making phone calls for the Congressional candidate, and not the Republican candidate. North Carolina is a different animal statewide, and not all of our "Democrats" vote Democrat, and some of our "Republicans" will vote for candidates like Larry.
Either way, NC-05 is right on the edge of impossible. 2006 was really the year to do it, but there were already two big congressional fights ... and those two same districts will be fought hard next year.
Maybe you should find them a Cubby of their own?
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
I think that mentality is what makes any district "impossible"
I also think it's wrong-headed.
If we cede that there are "unwinnable" districts, then why bother having elections?
(begin rant here)
I'm tired of hearing about these "unwinnable" districts. Last year, Craig Weber (D-candidate for NC-03) got 30% of the vote. Pretty unremarkable, right? Except that he didn't do anything and he didn't return telephone calls and he didn't reach out to local parties for help. He didn't do anything and got a third of the vote.
With a little effort and maybe one or two hard-working volunteers in each county along with County Party support, he could've beaten Jones, Jr.
The downfall of the NC Democratic Party is that it enters each campaign season with the "we can win here, but over there isn't in play" mindset. It's a great recipe for failure, but we've got new ingredients and it's long past time for a new recipe.
NC-03 is more in play than it has been in years. It's in play and it's winnable.
(Ending the rant now, thanks for patience.)
Thomas S. Brock
www.brocknet.net
www.brocknet.net/WordPress/
OnslowCountyPolitics@gmail.com
http://onslowcountypolitics.brocknet.net
Thomas
What have YOU done today to make the world a better place?
You're good when you rant
You should do it more often. And you're right as rain on this one. Writing off any district is just as idiotic as writing off "the south" in a presidential race.
We have to fight them at every turn. Every race. Every time.
Carthago delenda est?
There are some situations when that works. But if you have a seat that is seemingly statistically impossible to win (and I never said NC-03 & -05 were impossible) and there are other hard fights going on down the ballot, you can hurt the down ballot races if the longshot campaign provokes the big campaign into spending money on GOTV, ads, etc. Also, don't argue that the longshot campaign is helping turnout in those races too, because that effect is negated and turned upside-down when the incumbent flips the switch and starts a real campaign.
I think we should give every candidate a chance, but I've worked with enough candidates to know that there are some that aren't worth supporting. I believe that when a good long shot candidate comes along in the right district at the right time, people figure it out (you'll never guess which example I'd cite here, but the cube root of his district is "2"). And yet there are so many more times when the long shot is not worth taking, and has unintended negative effects. It's easy to throw up support for everyone, but after walking into a few small homes last year to raise $1000 a pop at house parties for a long shot candidate by asking working people for hard-earned money (among other experiences), I just can't share the popular opinion.
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
A few thoughts
First, from what I have seen there are no down ballot races to hurt here. Both NC-03 and NC-05 (and even NC-08) were full of Republicans in the state house and state senate getting a free ride.
More importantly, we are talking about 2008. In 2008, either we will have a Presidential candidate that will ignore turnout, or we will get a 50 state strategy. If that happens then these congressional candidates are going to be pushed by the national party to do turnout for their races no matter what type of race they have. By having a good candidate we can offset many of their GOTV gains.
If North Carolina is ceded to Republicans then these congressional representatives will only have themselves to worry about. That was why I asked the question, will Foxx think this was a fluke or not? If she doesnt then she will pour everything she can into turnout no matter what. If she thinks its a fluke, or if she thinks its a high water mark, then she wont get things going until very late in the game.
You and I both know that a good field operation takes months to put together. If you think you are going to have a safe ride in May and you dont realize you have a serious challenger until August it might be too late. And, if you dont have the cash already stored up to make a last minute run then you are screwed.
The fact that Foxx has $700,000 on hand means that it will be much easier for her to start a true campaign very late in the cycle and win, but that is never an easy thing to do.
Also, I dont believe that campaign contributions are a zero sum game. However, if we are making congressional candidates here spend millions to protect themselves, then they arent giving millions to go after others. For instance, Apodaca, in the state senate, gave away almost 100,000 to other Republican candidates (and the state party). If he had been challenged he would not have been able to do that. The same thing works on a congressional level.
Draft Brad Miller -- NC Sen ActBlue :::Petition
"Keep the Faith"
You know I'm not talking about giving away NC!
First, NC-08 wasn't a concern when it came to down-ballot races because all of the precincts in Meck were Dem precincts ...
Second, having a big winner in the presidential race is what we always dream about, and the GOP is in trouble next year ... but we can still lose! I wish all the bloggers and others that were sure that Larry was going to win had come out to canvass with us.
Third, contributions aren't zero-sum, and you know I don't think they are. But when people give to a candidate, and that candidate gets less than 40%, they will give less all around in the future because they feel burned. Sure, there's always risk, and people like to gamble, but it's better for all concerned if we make sure that the grassroots donors - the ones who don't write $1000 checks every time to by access - get the most bang for their buck. I was completely OK with asking for money for Larry's race because I wasn't stretching the truth a bit - we knew he could win, and we knew that enough other people thought that he could win to make it a good investment that unfortunately too few people made. And sure, some people like giving to long shot candidates or idealists. But there are definitely some zero-sum aspects to this game.
Finally, this is a dumb conversation to have before all the candidates appear ... even though I'm sure you don't know how it feels to be involved with an inferior candidate ;) I do hope, however, that Marshall can get some dough.
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
I had this whole long post
written and it got deleted. Anyway, what I am doing right now is laying the groundwork so that people start to think of certain races as winnable before someone comes by asking for money. By this point, anyone on kos who needs to be convinced that Dole is worth our effort just needs to read my diaries and they should see why we need to go after her. That way, as long as we get a credible candidate half of his (or her) job is already done. Instead of showing how Dole is vulnerable, they will just have to show how they are credible. If they cant make that case then we wont win. If they can then the pieces are in place for them to get a ton of help. There is no reason to think we cant do the same thing for these other races.
Also, we already have a candidate in NC-03. It will be interesting to see who emerges in NC-05
Draft Brad Miller -- NC Sen ActBlue :::Petition
"Keep the Faith"
Over at kos
I was asked for more info about NC-03. I hope you dont mind, but I plan on quoting your rant for why we should make this seat our top priority after NC-08.
Draft Brad Miller -- NC Sen ActBlue :::Petition
"Keep the Faith"
Wow...
Of course you can quote me, Blue South. I will say that you should bear in mind that I posed the same arguments in Kosworld months ago and was thoroughly beaten about the head and shoulders for questioning Democratic strategy.
They share Mr. Spencer's thought process that we (Democrats) shouldn't pick fights we don't already know we can win.
Thomas S. Brock
www.brocknet.net
www.brocknet.net/WordPress/
OnslowCountyPolitics@gmail.com
http://onslowcountypolitics.brocknet.net
Thomas
What have YOU done today to make the world a better place?
There's a difference between "picking a fight"
and claiming something is the 2nd best pickup opportunity.
As for me, you might like to know that I managed one long shot congressional campaign in NC last year, and left that campaign to help Blue South direct field ops for Kissell. Both moves questioned the Democratic strategy and all of my friends and mentors who told me to go work for Heath.
But there's a difference between "long shots" and 40% differentials. Find me a post-Depression Congressional race that didn't involve a major scandal where a party went from a 40% differential one year to a less than 10% differential two years later and I'll contribute $50 to the ActBlue draft fund for NC-03.
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
Perfect storms
Some districts are perfect storm races. Districts where there has to be a perfect combination of events to create a win. However, you not only have to be positioned to take advantage of those storms, you have to help them along.
For instance, George Allen and Jim Webb was almost a perfect storm. Without demographic changes in NOVA and without the Dem tide that win doesnt happen. But, even with those larger concerns, without the CREATED contreversy of racism, and without the credible candidate already in place, the win wouldnt have happened.
We can get a credible candidate, help them out, help to point out hypocricy and hopefully create a contreversy, then when other factors such as a Democratic wave, or a few million in GOTV money from a presidential campaign shows up we are ready to win.
But, this is why I put together this ranking. So that we can start thinking about all the reasons why certain races are winnable and certain races are not. I dont believe you are really arguing for the abandoment of certain areas, just the best allocation of resources. Effectively, lets not blow our chances with Larry or put Heath into trouble by focusing on long shots. But, I believe that we can create our own state wide wave. We already have things like the Governors race to help us out. We might have Edwards to help us out. Lets get the structure in place in places like NC-03 and NC-05 so that if the right situation occurs we will be there. And if it doesnt, then lets do everything we can to avoid handing Republicans easy votes. GOTV is much easier when you are the only one doing it. Lets make GOTV for the Republicans as difficult as possible in every corner of the state.
Draft Brad Miller -- NC Sen ActBlue :::Petition
"Keep the Faith"
I didn't say anything about NC-03 ;)
If Edwards wins the nomination, I could see events conspiring to create a breakout house district depending on where Edwards does voter reg, GOTV, and the general excitement over his campaign.
But in Districts like NC-09, NC-10, and NC-03, Kerry/Edwards got less than 40% of the vote in '04. Things have changed since then, but all three of those districts are still tough sells. If you can recruit a killer candidate that can drum up excitement outside of the interweb, more power to you, but that's even tougher than winning some times (see: NC-Sen this year).
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
Chiming in late to disagree
Nah. Probably not. I will probably support any Democratic Nominee - but if I don't really believe in them, I'm not going out of my way, phone banking, canvassing, etc. I have to be a true believer in order to do that.
"Be the change you wish to see in the world." - Gandhi
And now I'm posting in British English ...
...
I always wanted to be the avenging cowboy hero—that lone voice in the wilderness, fighting corruption and evil wherever I found it, and standing for freedom, truth and justice. - Bill Hicks
Post completed
I have a long, detailed analysis of NC-03 ready. Its about the best I can do given the fact that I have almost no on the ground knowledge about the district.
I will put it up Thur, Friday or later, and will be begging for reccs. Consider this your warning.
Draft Brad Miller -- NC Sen ActBlue :::Petition
"Keep the Faith"
Thomas Brock is in Onslow County
That's about as on the ground as you can get. I'm sure he won't mind you running things by him.
Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.
***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.
good point
Thomas, email sent
Draft Brad Miller -- NC Sen ActBlue :::Petition
"Keep the Faith"
Try groveling.
Usually works for me.
:)
I just
send payments to those who recc.
I promise, the checks are in the mail...
Draft Brad Miller -- NC Sen ActBlue :::Petition
"Keep the Faith"
'laying the groundwork so that people start to think'
aye-yup.
One thing I know. People hate it when they find out they've been had. They don't like to be lied to or manipulated.
I would suggest you have incumbent voting records handy to show people where their 'representative' has voted against the people's interest.
Even better if you have your candidate's stated positions that show they are against 'status-quo'.
A lot of the general public just doesn't care as long as they 'perceive' the job is getting done. Showing them the job isn't getting done is key.
If I could have a dollar for every time I've heard, 'I didn't know that....'
I also tell them this, 'We're Stealth Patriots. Walking the line so you don't have to.' We know this politics business can be boring and grody but 'I thought you should know this'.
:::back to your regularly scheduled debate::::