2010

According to this wikipedia article, the balance is currently:

The North Carolina state House of Representatives, during the 2009–10 session, consisted of 68 Democrats and 52 Republicans.

The state Senate, during the 2009–10 session, consisted of 30 Democrats and 20 Republicans.

I know some about local politics, but I'd be interested in getting a broader view. And predictions are half the fun of elections. Does anyone else know enough about retirements, weak incumbents, possible pick ups, and voter preferences to make some predictions?

What's your best case scenario within reason?
What's your best guess for most likely scenario?
What's your worst case scenario within reason?

Cross-posted from an article by Chris Kromm at the Institute for Southern Studies.

Ask a casual political observer to name the nation's biggest Republican operatives, and a few would come readily to mind. Most could you tell you about Karl Rove -- the legendary Bush adviser and GOP strategist who this year aims to spend $52 million by November to help elect conservative candidates.

Some might even know Charles and David Koch, the Kansas-based oil billionaires who have poured over a hundred million dollars since 1980 into conservative causes and spent millions more on political candidates and lobbyists.

It's not just the John Cusack movie "Hot Tub Time Machine" that is causing flashbacks to the 1980s. It is also a Congressional race in Arizona.

Just when you thought Election 2010 couldn't get any weirder, guess whose son wants to be in Congress?

Yep, former Vice President Dan Quayle's.

It's not weird that a son wants to follow in his Dad's footsteps. Nothing wrong with that at all. Happens all the time and is noble, even endearing.

However, what's weird - scary, even - is how this guy is trying to do it and what he brings to the debate. Is this truly the best and brightest of Arizona? Is the GOP in this fellow's district so bereft of talent in its farm team that they are seriously considering this guy?

Cross-posted over at Daily Kos:

Guess who just took the lead in North Carolina?

Elaine Marshall..........37%
Richard Burr..............35%

...this was conducted by Lake Research, one of the best in the business. From their report:

The horserace is ominous for Burr. A month after her impressive win in the Democratic runoff, Marshall holds a slight lead with 37% compared to 35% for Burr. Libertarian candidate Mike Beitler takes 5% support and 23% of voters are undecided.

We are less than a week away from the primary here in North Carolina and the campaign season craziness is as thick as early-April pollen around here, especially when it comes to our Senate candidates. So I thought I might take a moment to introduce you to my choice for US Senator from the great state of North Carolina, Mr. Zach Galifianakis and encourage you to join the Facebook group.

"Why Zach Galifianakis," you might ask? Read on and learn about the candidate with the best shot at beating Richard Burr this year, his quest to defeat the right-wing of North Carolina and his mission to restore the Galifianakis family's political legacy in North Carolina.

I don't usually get involved in Democratic primary contests, but this race was too important to stay on the sidelines. In North Carolina we have three candidates vying for the Democratic nomination, but one stands out above the rest. That candidate is Ken Lewis.

I know what it takes to defeat an incumbent. I have seen Ken's ability to connect with young voters, progressives, and African Americans, the same groups that drove Barack Obama to victory in North Carolina in 2008. In an off year election where Democrats are not showing high levels of engagement, Ken is the best candidate to inspire and turn out the coalition of voters that will be necessary to defeat Senator Burr in November.

Your help will ensure Democrats put forward the best candidate to defeat Richard Burr.

Along with the press release, our Communications Director sent this note to the Sierra Club. We wanted to share this with the BlueNC community as well.

In the debate last night we saw again that the only thing clear about Cal is his inconsistency. Now on both offshore drilling and nuclear he has made contradictory statements, trying to have it both ways. It is apparent that he is attempting to get the support of progressive groups now, but also position himself for a shift in the general election. He's faking left, but very clearly headed right. I believe that this endorsement is a mistake and will look bad for the Sierra Club. The Sierra Club, and the broader environmental community, only loses out when it endorses candidates that do not show real leadership on the environment.
-- Sam

LEWIS CALLS ON SIERRA CLUB TO WITHDRAW ENDORSEMENT: SAYS CUNNINGHAM WAS FOR DRILLING BEFORE HE WAS AGAINST IT

Last week, with the primary election cycle nearing its end, I started a conversation on how to make the difficult decision of deciding between good democrats in this primary election. And I gave the 3 campaigns some guidance on what I hoped to see in terms of taking stands on issues, and clarifying stands that have already been taken.

I wanted to see not only what campaigns will say among friends when they speak on bluenc.com, or pamshouseblend.com, or dailykos.com, or BlueNC Radio, or through direct messages on facebook, or in person at the Orange County Democratic Party Convention that I attended over the weekend, but also what they will say to the whole electorate by means of their website. Based on a number of factors, including what they're willing to say to the whole electorate, I find myself ready to pick, support, and endorse a side.

The debate will be on NBC17 on Wednesday and early voting starts on Thursday of this week so decision time really is right now. I invite those of you have who have made up your minds regardless of the candidate, and want to share some guidance about how you got there, to jump in too!

Democratic County Conventions are being held today all across North Carolina. Unfortunately, despite his super-human capabilities, Ken can't make it to all of them. He has asked that the following letter be read to convention-goers on his behalf. Read it. Share it. Make sure progress has a voice in this year's election:

Dear North Carolina Democrats,

I come from a very different place than the senators serving today. My grandmother was born in 1893, on a plantation in Person County. She was taught to read and write by her children and lived to be 100 years old. Even though her own mother had been a slave, my grandmother believed deeply in the promise of America as the land of opportunity. Now, her grandchild seeks to represent North Carolina in the U.S. Senate to make real on that promise, and to secure a future where all Americans have the opportunity to realize their full potential.

You are cordially invited to NC Insurance Commissioner Wayne Goodwin's 2010 Queen City fundraiser in Charlotte! Essential information appears below, including sponsorship opportunities, how to contribute online or by mail, etc.

March 16, 2010

Hilton Charlotte - University Place (University Hilton)
8629 JM Keynes Drive
Charlotte

5:30-7:30 pm

General Admission: $100/person

Sponsor levels include: $250, $500, et al.