The Next Recount Begins

Today is the day that the initial eye-hand recount of 3% of precincts in the 8th District will be started. The recount of 13 precincts chosen at random from the 10 counties is expected to last only two days.

As was discussed in the comments on this thread written by Sam Spencer, each county will have at least one precinct counted by hand with Cumberland, Cabarrus and Mecklenburg counting two precincts.

Each precinct will be chosen at random by elections officials in each county according to an article in The Charlotte Observer. Of the 10 counties that make up the 8th District, Larry Kissell won six. Hayes carried Cumberland, Union and Cabarrus and Stanly counties.

The Observer and WCNC report that Larry only needs to pick up 10-12 votes for the state to call for a full eye-hand recount in every precinct. There are 226 precincts overall. This includes the early voting precincts. Larry needs 330 votes to overturn current results. This adds up to about 1.5 votes per precinct per my rudimentary math. This translates to closer to 19 votes overall. Again, I use very basic math to do the fancy extrapolatin' this calls for. I won't swear by my figures, but in Sam Spencer's piece he gave an estimate of 2-3 votes per precinct and that is a much safer bet than the 10-12 votes total given by the corporate media.

Here is a link(PDF) to the recount schedule. Cumberland, Mecklenburg, Montgomery, Scotland and Stanly counties will be counted today. I don't know whether results will show up at the SBOE site or not. From these, four precincts are from Kissell counties and three precincts are from Hayes counties. Keep your fingers crossed.

Comments

Lots of people have been asking me

"What's going on with Larry?" Thanks for giving me the information I need to provide a cogent answer!

Sd do you have any fingernails left?

CountryCrats - my thoughts, my blog.

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

No, none

and I'm on my last nerve. My stomach is in a knot.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

You're on

my last nerve, too. ;)

Robin Hayes Hates Puppies

Go Away

I haven't even started to get on your nerves. Trust me.............I know what I have in store for you. :)

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

I'll vouch for that.

Watch it Cabanna boy

You aren't out of the woods yet, yourself.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

:)

I kinda like being in the woods. At least there are trees to hide behind!

Not for long

You can run but you can't hide

Whoa.

Chainsaw Betsy on the prowl!

Actually, that's Greg with the chainsaw

I still use a durned slingshot. ;)

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

Eye-Hand coordination

Two days! Your nerves must be shot.

How's Larry? What's he been doing?

Scrutiny Hooligans - http://www.scrutinyhooligans.us

I don't know

I haven't bothered Larry or anyone with the campaign. They know I'm here if they need me. I don't want them distracted. Just keep your fingers crossed. Also, don't get excited if at the end of today the numbers look good. There will be three precincts from counties that went for Larry and three from counties that went for Hayes counted tomorrow. Cabarrus - Hayes' biggest supporters will be counted tomorrow. That could eat into any gains from today.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

Sadly

I am sick or I would be there watching.

PS-- I see that all the times are from 8 to 10. So the counting should be done for today by noon or so? How long does it take to hand count a precinct?

HelpLarry.com

"Keep the Faith"

Only 1 or 2 precincts

per county in the sample count.

If you figure each precint has 300 - 600 votes to count (pathetic but true), it shouldn't take too long.

Robin Hayes Hates Puppies

so why hasn't it been updated. Aaaargh.

CountryCrats - my thoughts, my blog.

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

I don't know that they will update it.

This is a test run to see if a full eye-hand recount is necessary. I could be wrong, but they might wait before posting numbers.

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

new numbers?

They have to post new numbers when they get them, because by law any hand count trumps a machine count. Therefore the vote total will change regardless of how many votes Larry picks up.

HelpLarry.com

"Keep the Faith"

someone just call the kissell camp already.

CountryCrats - my thoughts, my blog.

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

I emailed

Steve Hudson, but he's probably too busy to respond. I would imagine they are working out their victory message. (I still have hope!)

Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

I called the SBOE

No new numbers on this race have been posted since 11-22 NCBOE so I called SBOE.

I was told by someone at the SBOE that they probably wont post the new numbers until tomorrow since there are counties that will be counted tomorrow. But, each individual county that has already been counted has their number of course, so, if no one can get in touch with the Kissell campaign, we could start calling those counties.

County Boards Directory

Kissell recount results

I called the following counties for results of the eye/hand count, thanks Greg for the phone list!

Montgomery: No change

Cumberland: Kissell lost one/Hayes gained one

Mecklenburg: Will not be done until tomorrow

Scotland: No change

Stanly: Kissell gained two

so

Does that mean same aggregate total or plus one for Larry?

HelpLarry.com

"Keep the Faith"

Hayes +1, Kissell +1

CountryCrats - my thoughts, my blog.

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Actually, 0 net gain

If Hayes gained one and Kissell lost one in Cumberland, that's a net gain of 2 for Hayes.

That +2/Hayes offsets the +2/Kissell in Stanly.

We're right back where we started.

Robin Hayes Hates Puppies

net gain of 0, but i was talking about total votes.

Hayes got +1
Larry got +2 and -1 which equals +1
Total vote gain of +1 by each candidate.
Net vote gain = 0

CountryCrats - my thoughts, my blog.

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

I think we're looking for net change

of 10-12 votes to justify a total recount.

So if the net is 0, we stop after the sample 3%.

Robin Hayes Hates Puppies

so 12 vote net gain in Meck and nothing elsewhere counts?

CountryCrats - my thoughts, my blog.

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Well,

if the sample precincts in Mecklenburg (or any of the counties, for that matter) show a net gain of 12 votes for Larry and all the others come out to a 0 net gain, then I think YES, a total recount would still be justified.

That net change is still a result of a sample recount and if it were extrapolated out, could result in a change in the overall result.

At least, that's what my common sense tells me...so take it for what it's worth.

Robin Hayes Hates Puppies

umm

If votes change in Meck then this will go to congress and the recount will mean almost nothing.

Computer summaries being different from paper trail will be huge there.

Otherwise your math is correct.

HelpLarry.com

"Keep the Faith"

based on SDs take above

cumberland was expected, stanly was not. Both are in the Hayes camp. Scotland county is tiny so no change there is not unexpected.

CountryCrats - my thoughts, my blog.

Jesus Swept ticked me off. Too short. I loved the characters and then POOF it was over.
-me

Maybe we'll see gains in Mecklenburg

Since Kissell won that county, by what, nearly 2-1?

Larry got 68%

of the Meck County vote. Unfortunately, that's the one county that doesn't use optical scan ballots, so the chance of any change in vote totals is smaller.

Robin Hayes Hates Puppies

Oh...

Damn!

Do you know what counties being recounted tomorrow also use optical scan ballots?

All use optical scan



Robin Hayes lied. Nobody died, but thousands of folks lost their jobs.



***************************
Vote Democratic, the ass you save may be your own.

Thanks!

I just reread the post about Mecklenburg being the one county that doesn't use optical scan ballots. LOL. Thanks for clarifying.

Hand/Eye Recount District 8 Schedule

Per SBOE:

11/29 08:00 AM MONTGOMERY
11/29 09:00 AM CUMBERLAND
11/29 09:00 AM MECKLENBURG now 11/30 no time
11/29 09:00 AM SCOTLAND
11/29 10:00 AM STANLY

11/30 08:30 AM CABARRUS
11/30 09:00 AM HOKE
11/30 10:00 AM ANSON
11/30 10:00 AM RICHMOND
11/30 03:00 PM UNION

It sounds like it's over

The email just went out to Larry's list. He has conceded.