Submitted by scharrison on Tue, 03/16/2010 - 11:43am.
I'm a Cal supporter, but I did want to make an observation about the above: Elaine's apparent drop does not (necessarily) indicate a drop in support for her campaign, it's more a function of growing name recognition pulling the others up.
That may sound confusing, but this almost always happens when you have a relatively well-known candidate squaring off with those starting from scratch.
Just trying to avoid (or postpone) a bloodbath, folks.
Submitted by Corndogg on Tue, 03/16/2010 - 11:45am.
I just wanted to show this simple graph. People are free to spin as they like. I am a Cal supporter as well (I have never led anyone on here to think otherwise), but I just wanted to point this out.
I just think it means the race is going to be really, really interesting as the final couple of laps descend upon us.
-- A liberal originally from Yadkin County. Did I just blow your mind?
Submitted by momoaizo on Tue, 03/16/2010 - 12:05pm.
and haven't seen anything to change my mind. Once she wins the primaries I hope everyone will work hard to get her elected to the Senate and take the seat back from Bank Run Burr!
Submitted by Foxtrot on Tue, 03/16/2010 - 12:55pm.
Late February polling data by Rasmussen shows Burrski with a pretty good lead. Not sure if that is closing..but we really will not know the real deal until after the primary.
And, what has been presented above by you guys is pretty much correct according to latest polling on the Dem NC U.S. Senate contest.
I think this one is currently a toss-up with Elaine having a slight lead but not outside the margin of error. And, as the primary draws closer, so, most likely will the margins.
___________________________________________________
“Discussion is an exchange of knowledge; argument is an exchange of ignorance" __ Robert Quillen
Submitted by Jake Gellar-Goad on Tue, 03/16/2010 - 6:35pm.
To illustrate this point, I generated a series of scatter plot charts using pollster.com's index of polls. Every poll in pollster.com's index is represented on each chart by a dot, plotted horizontally by the date of the poll, and vertically by the results of the poll.
Rasmussen polls are in red; every other poll is in green.
Submitted by NCDemocrat85 on Tue, 03/16/2010 - 5:20pm.
I think it's important to keep in mind that a lot of the outcome of this primary is going to depend on who has the most financial support(and is spending $ the most wisely). I think the next finance reports will give us more indication about what may happen on May 4th. Whichever candidate can stay up on TV the longest that also has good messaging will come out the winner of this primary, I believe.
Submitted by millstone on Wed, 03/17/2010 - 1:11pm.
I want to begin by saying that I have the utmost respect for Tom Jensen and PPP Polling. Tom is a good pollster and an astute analyst. I have used him in the past and will use him again. That said, this particular poll has problems. A close look at the crosstabs reveals them.
First, African-Americans make up 30% of the poll sample. Cunningham has a net negative (-8) among African-Americans while Marshall and Lewis have strong positives (+14 and +7, respectively). However, in the head-to-head, Cunningham is leading by Marshall by 6 and Lewis by 7 (20-14-13) among African-Americans. That's not believable.
Second, the overall favorable/unfavorable ratings from PPP's Feb. poll are unchanged. The chance of seeing a swing in the head-to-head that large with no change and no paid communications is vey unlikely.
Finally, the PPP poll has 828 area code (western NC) making up 17% of the primary electorate. In reality, people in that area code will make up about 8%.
Full disclosure, I'm the general consultant to the Marshall campaign.
Submitted by scharrison on Wed, 03/17/2010 - 2:21pm.
I'm just speculating here Thomas, but keep in mind the African-American percentages in the head-to-head are based on Question 4, not the favorable/unfavorable question, which had an 83% "not sure" response.
By my calculations, that "net negative" you're referencing above is based on the choices of 21 out of 126 African Americans. All it would take is a handful of "not sure's" choosing Cal in question 4 to account for the (seemingly) inaccurate percentages in the head-to-head.
If you're half as confused as I am after that theory, don't try to drive your car anywhere just yet. ;)
Submitted by gopack2010 on Wed, 03/17/2010 - 2:29pm.
Lewis makes the fourth statewide candidate in the last two cycles in North Carolina to blast us and accuse us of bias, joining Richard Moore, Bob Orr, and Elizabeth Dole. Moore, Orr, and Dole all lost badly. Blasting pollsters is the sign of a campaign in bad shape.
If no candidate gets 40% there can be a runoff between the top two, correct? If so I see a second primary between Elaine and Cunningham because I think Lewis will be a spoiler in this one. What do you think?
Tightening up
I'm a Cal supporter, but I did want to make an observation about the above: Elaine's apparent drop does not (necessarily) indicate a drop in support for her campaign, it's more a function of growing name recognition pulling the others up.
That may sound confusing, but this almost always happens when you have a relatively well-known candidate squaring off with those starting from scratch.
Just trying to avoid (or postpone) a bloodbath, folks.
No bloodbath needed, or intended
I just wanted to show this simple graph. People are free to spin as they like. I am a Cal supporter as well (I have never led anyone on here to think otherwise), but I just wanted to point this out.
I just think it means the race is going to be really, really interesting as the final couple of laps descend upon us.
-- A liberal originally from Yadkin County. Did I just blow your mind?
Yep
It's gonna get very interesting. Which is cool. :)
Right now I'm a Marshall supporter
and haven't seen anything to change my mind. Once she wins the primaries I hope everyone will work hard to get her elected to the Senate and take the seat back from Bank Run Burr!
I hope that sentiment rings true
for whichever candidate is fortunate enough to win the primary. It will take everything we have to out ole Bank Run!
-- A liberal originally from Yadkin County. Did I just blow your mind?
We still have an uphill battle, regardless of dem candidate
Late February polling data by Rasmussen shows Burrski with a pretty good lead. Not sure if that is closing..but we really will not know the real deal until after the primary.
And, what has been presented above by you guys is pretty much correct according to latest polling on the Dem NC U.S. Senate contest.
I think this one is currently a toss-up with Elaine having a slight lead but not outside the margin of error. And, as the primary draws closer, so, most likely will the margins.
___________________________________________________
“Discussion is an exchange of knowledge; argument is an exchange of ignorance" __ Robert Quillen
Rasmussen Polling
Hmmm...interesting
Thanks, Jake. I will remember that.
___________________________________________________
“Discussion is an exchange of knowledge; argument is an exchange of ignorance" __ Robert Quillen
I think it's important to
I think it's important to keep in mind that a lot of the outcome of this primary is going to depend on who has the most financial support(and is spending $ the most wisely). I think the next finance reports will give us more indication about what may happen on May 4th. Whichever candidate can stay up on TV the longest that also has good messaging will come out the winner of this primary, I believe.
Something I don't understand about this PPP poll
The net favorables/unfavorables seem to be off in the crosstabs.
I may not be reading this correctly, but it appears to be a statistical impossibility.
I've got a a lot of confidence in the folks at PPP, but something in the crosstabs doesn't look right.
Tom, you're the expert and I'm not, so please explain. I could just be looking in the wrong boxes.
I'm a little suspect of the crosstabs.
There are problems with the poll
I want to begin by saying that I have the utmost respect for Tom Jensen and PPP Polling. Tom is a good pollster and an astute analyst. I have used him in the past and will use him again. That said, this particular poll has problems. A close look at the crosstabs reveals them.
First, African-Americans make up 30% of the poll sample. Cunningham has a net negative (-8) among African-Americans while Marshall and Lewis have strong positives (+14 and +7, respectively). However, in the head-to-head, Cunningham is leading by Marshall by 6 and Lewis by 7 (20-14-13) among African-Americans. That's not believable.
Second, the overall favorable/unfavorable ratings from PPP's Feb. poll are unchanged. The chance of seeing a swing in the head-to-head that large with no change and no paid communications is vey unlikely.
Finally, the PPP poll has 828 area code (western NC) making up 17% of the primary electorate. In reality, people in that area code will make up about 8%.
Full disclosure, I'm the general consultant to the Marshall campaign.
"Not Sure"
I'm just speculating here Thomas, but keep in mind the African-American percentages in the head-to-head are based on Question 4, not the favorable/unfavorable question, which had an 83% "not sure" response.
By my calculations, that "net negative" you're referencing above is based on the choices of 21 out of 126 African Americans. All it would take is a handful of "not sure's" choosing Cal in question 4 to account for the (seemingly) inaccurate percentages in the head-to-head.
If you're half as confused as I am after that theory, don't try to drive your car anywhere just yet. ;)
Interesting
If no candidate gets 40%
If no candidate gets 40% there can be a runoff between the top two, correct? If so I see a second primary between Elaine and Cunningham because I think Lewis will be a spoiler in this one. What do you think?
I'm a moderate Democrat.